Intending this market to capture the election and immediate aftermath, so will resolve 2 weeks after a candidate takes office.
NO if there are 10 or more deaths related to the election, or if there is substantial resistance to transfer of power such as in seen Brazil or US, or if the winning candidate (by international report) does not assume office within 100 days of the end of the election. YES otherwise.
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I chose 'yes' based on your title rather than your criteria, which was my fault. That said, I think your resolution criteria were not what would have been expected by some people from your title. Election violence is common in Nigeria, as is political violence in general, I thought this would be specifically about the transfer of power.
The transition of power has not yet happened, so there have not yet been any deaths attributable to the transfer of power.
Again, my fault for not reading, not yours at all. I will use the quick option less in future!
https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-election-violence-tracker-situation-summary-13-december-2022-15-january-2023
At least 4 deaths (in December)
@AaronKreider On 16 December, an
LP candidate was murdered in Onuimo LGA, reportedly when unidentified gunmen invaded
his residence. Additionally, internecine fighting erupted on 26 December in Ebonyi state
between loyalists of the state APC chairman and the House of Representatives candidate for
Afikpo North/South federal constituency. Three people were reportedly killed: a policeman, a
community youth leader, and the APC chairman’s younger brother. On 12 January, an
unidentified armed group, consisting of alleged APC supporters, attacked NNPP members in
Abakaliki, Ebonyi state, during a grassroots consultation rally. The INEC office in Enugu
South was also the target of a violent attack on 15 January, which reportedly led to the death
of a policeman.
7 political deaths in two weeks (possibly more, not sure if they label all the political deaths clearly).
https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-election-violence-tracker-situation-summary-1-13-february-2023
@AaronKreider I'd expect 10-100 people to die in election related violence if the election is generally normal. It's quite possible that 10 people have already died.
https://theconversation.com/election-violence-in-nigerias-south-east-is-threatening-to-derail-voting-in-the-region-198610
1149 people killed in the last three elections. The article mentions two attacks in this election with a total of 6 deaths.
Looks like this can probably be already resolved to YES.
@AaronKreider That’s fair, although I think you’ve misread the resolution phrasing and mean NO (was the phrasing confusing? Sorry if so)
I might have set the criteria at too low a bar, but too late now. I’ll wait to resolve until either it obviously crosses 10 (either other incidents are provided or I’ll search around/see them).
@DanStoyell Yeah I did the thing where I bought the wrong side! lol. And to think I do this professionally...
@AaronKreider I think I might have assumed that it was priced semi-correctly. But nope. For some reason (probably because real money isn't involved), it was totally mispriced.