90
784
แน€3.4k
2025
87%
Ambazonia / Anyone
45%
Israel / Lebanon
42%
Balochistan / Anyone
42%
Central African Republic Civil War
23%
Israel / Iran
21%
Azerbaijan / Armenia
14%
United States / Iran
11%
Serbia / Kosovo
10%
India / Pakistan
5%
China / Taiwan

Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran and start accruing losses in one Wikipedia entry, both of those pairings could resolve Yes together. Multiple belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other. At the end of the year, all unresolved conflicts will resolve No.

A conflict will only resolve N/A if the definition of the countries involved becomes broadly disputed in a high traffic trading event with no reasonable solution after asking mods. One guy misreading the wikipedia rules won't result in an N/A, but 12 people arguing about a 5-way civil war with publicly denied international intervention might.

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Azerbaijan / Armenia
bought แน€20 Azerbaijan / Armenia NO
sold แน€16 Azerbaijan / Armenia YES

@shankypanky Yeah I imagine the Georgia situation also just adds major stability concerns to all the rational actors in the region. Azerbaijan wanted a series of heists, not a risk of indefinite chaos.

bought แน€20 of Balochistan / Anyone YES

Big note: the Anglophone Crisis, which includes the Ambazonia / Anyone question in this market, has been upgraded to a War. However, it was upgraded based on a revision to the upper bound of the 2023 data. I am saying this does NOT count for a Yes in the spirit of this market, due to the market's overall title referring to 2024 violence. Upper bounds DO count in general for the year 2024 though, so take that into consideration. If the Anglophone Crisis breaks 1000 fatalities in 2024, it can still resolve Yes.

bought แน€50 Ambazonia / Anyone YES

@Panfilo This one has crept up and looks likely to be our first Yes unless another conflict escalates.

Added this as a separate market based on recent news. I think the likelihood is low, but if you think it's decent, then Semiotic just put down a massive No order! @traders

Russia / Baltics

Israel / Iran and USA / Iran are less correlated than I expected!

Israel / Lebanon

Does this one includes Hezbollah like Haws' question or is it excluded? https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i?r=SGF3cw

@Lion Absolutely, Hezbolah is a political party with a share of parliament.

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