Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
45
1kṀ31662034
21%
chance
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Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.
Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.
If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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