Will 40% of world’s population or more live in authoritarian regimes before 2030?
Mini
6
Ṁ120
2030
79%
chance

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if 40% of the world's population or more live in countries that are classified as "authoritarian regimes" (score of less than 4.0) for any report for the 2020s (the last one for the 2020s is likely to be published in early 2030).

In the 2023 report, 39.4% of the world's population live under authoritarian regimes, an increase from the 2022 report where the number was 36.9%.

Here are the percentages published by The Economist in Democracy Index reports since 2010:

  • 2023: 39.4% (+2.5)

  • 2022: 36.9% (-0.2)

  • 2021: 37.1% (+1.5)

  • 2020: 35.6% (no change)

  • 2019: 35.6% (no change)

  • 2018: 35.6% (+1.6)

  • 2017: 34.0% (+2.7)

  • 2016: 32.7% (-1.4)

  • 2015: 34.1% (-3.5)

  • 2014: 37.6% (+0.6)

  • 2013: 37.0% (-0.1)

  • 2012: 37.1% (-0.5)

  • 2011: 37.6% (+1.1)

  • 2010: 36.5%

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