Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Question

This market is an attempt to formalise @AlyssaVance's prediction that:

Over the next decade, it is quite likely that most democratic Western countries will become fascist dictatorships

Which she argues the case for in her Less Wrong post, The Dictatorship Problem.

This market may not perfectly match Alyssa's intended prediction, and I invite her to clarify whether she would price this market at >50% based on her views. However, I will resolve this market based on its stated criteria, regardless of how well it turns out to match what Alyssa was going for.

For the purposes of this market:

"Western" shall mean all countries (and successor states to countries), excluding microstates, listed as part of the Western world in Samuel P. Huntington's 1996 Clash of Civilizations. This does not include Latin America or the Orthodox World, whose status as part of the West is treated as ambiguous by Huntington.

"Democratic" shall mean any country scoring as a "full" or "flawed" democracy according to The Economist Democracy Index, published annually.

According to these definitions, all western countries are currently either full or flawed democracies:

Current Western "full" democracies

Canada

Iceland

Ireland

United Kingdom

Spain

France

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Switzerland

Germany

Denmark

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Austria

Australia

New Zealand

Current Western "flawed" democracies

United States

Portugal

Belgium

Italy

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Czechia

Slovakia

Hungary

Slovenia

Croatia

This market will resolve YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), the majority of the above countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.

Fine print

If the borders of any of the above countries change significantly between now and market resolution, then for the purpose of determining whether the "majority" of countries have ceased to be democracies, successor states will be counted fractionally according to what fraction of population living within the country's borders at the time of the border change now live in each successor state.

For example:

If Tasmania secedes from Australia, the new country of Tasmania will count as 2.1% of a country, and the rest of Australia will count as 97.9% of a country (assuming a similar fraction of Australia's population is in Tasmania as today).

If the Netherlands annexes New Zealand, then the newly-enlarged Netherlands will count as two countries.

If India annexes an area encompassing 50% of the population of Germany, then the remaining German state will count as 50% of a country, and India will count as 150% of a country (i.e. even though India's population is much larger than half of Germany, we are attempting to count the other 50% of the former German population as now being under whatever type of regime The Economist Democracy Index assigns to India).

Border changes will count as such if they comprise a change in who has in-practice political and military control over a region, regardless of whether this is disputed or recognised by the international community.

If a territorial change occurs such that the majority of countries counted in this way are no longer democratic according to the results of most recent release of The Economist Democracy Index, the market will resolve YES immediately rather than waiting for the next release of The Economist Democracy Index.

If a territorial change results in the creation of new countries not currently listed in the  The Economist Democracy Index, and the democratic status of the new countries makes a difference for market resolution, resolution will wait until the next release of the Index. Any newly-created country not listed in future releases of  The Economist Democracy Index will not count for the purposes of resolution, though I'll try to count things sensibly if there is an obvious sensible approach.

If The Economist Democracy Index ceases to exist or significantly changes its methodology, then I'll use the next best alternative after discussion with market participants.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (92 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).