https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

'The Democracy Index published by the Economist Group is an index measuring the quality of democracy across the world.
...
The index is based on 60 indicators grouped into five categories, measuring pluralism, civil liberties, and political culture. In addition to a numeric score and a ranking, the index categorizes each country into one of four regime types: full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes, and authoritarian regimes.'

The United States degraded from being a full democracy to a flawed democracy in 2016. Will this trend accelerate?

• If the Economist Democracy Index is no longer updated by 2040 then I will try to find a consensus on a comparable index.

• This market will resolve YES if at any point the United States degrades into a hybrid regime, regardless if it then recovers as a flawed democracy by 2040.

I will not bet in this market.