Will Earth be at least 2.2˚C warmer in 2100 than in 1880?
15
42
Ṁ703Ṁ330
2101
74%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
62% chance
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?
26% chance
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
78% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
63% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
53% chance
Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
44% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth?
80% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
41% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
70% chance