Will Earth be at least 2.2˚C warmer in 2100 than in 1880?
19
1kṀ766
2101
68%
chance

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Market context
Climate
Existential Risk
Anthis Big Questions
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Temperature is sunspot lagged fifty years.

@MarkIngraham https://xkcd.com/1732/

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