Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31, 2023

AI Manifold Technology

Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?

54%

chance

New rule: It cannot merely invest by looking at other predicition websites

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Vincent Luczkow

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Are there any restrictions on the type of AI? I assume you mean "deep learning based" but beyond that does anything go as long as it's an honest attempt to succeed?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Sounds like a future Elicit feature.

does it have to use up-to date info, or could gpt-3 with its frozen 'database' work?

@Isaac228c It has to be able to actively research using the internet.

Does it have to be profitable? I'd imagine a lot of attempts going broke due to subtle details, e.g., some caveat in the comments.

Srđan Pandurević

@lu An important detail. Making an unprofitable bot is something I can whip up tonight after reading the manifold api docs lol

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@SranPandurevic In a different comment they said it just has to be 'an honest attempt by my judgment, it can't just be "google the post title and invest YES if there is an odd number of vowels"'

Does it have to be general? I could see, for example, a bot existing that can parse stock/crypto histories and make a semi-reasonable forecast of price for the subset of markets of that nature.

But a bot that can handle "Will I get at least a B+ on my midterm?" seems like AGI, frankly.

is predicting YES at 74%

@AndrewHartman it does, doesn't it?

Does it have to have any success?

@KatjaGrace No, but it must be an honest attempt by my judgment, it can't just be "google the post title and invest YES if there is an odd number of vowels"/

Manifold DreamBot

Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 50%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 54%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 53%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 52%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 50%

bought Ṁ90 NO from 63% to 49%

bought Ṁ1 YES at 63%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 63%

Vincent Luczkow

bought Ṁ40 YES from 56% to 61%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 NO at 56% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ40 YES from 52% to 58%

Vincent Luczkow

bought Ṁ100 YES from 33% to 52%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 NO at 33%

bought Ṁ25 YES from 28% to 34%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 28%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 31%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 26% to 28%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 28% to 27%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 28%

Nikita Brancatisano

bought Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 29%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ0 YES at 28%

sold Ṁ9 YES from 31% to 28%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 31% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ9 YES from 32% to 29%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 32%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 YES at 35% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 28% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ200 NO from 61% to 21%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 61%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 61% to 59%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 61% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 NO at 63% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 YES from 59% to 69%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 59%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ2 YES at 57%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 73% to 57%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 76% to 73%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 76%

Vincent Luczkow

bought Ṁ10 YES from 74% to 75%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ2 YES at 74%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 82% to 74%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ50 YES at 82% (cancelled)

Vincent Luczkow

bought Ṁ25 YES from 78% to 81%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 78% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 YES from 73% to 80%

sold Ṁ13 YES from 76% to 73%

bought Ṁ30 YES from 69% to 76%