DAL59 avatar
closes Dec 31, 2023
Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?
54%
chance

New rule: It cannot merely invest by looking at other predicition websites

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vluzko avatar
Vincent Luczkow
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Are there any restrictions on the type of AI? I assume you mean "deep learning based" but beyond that does anything go as long as it's an honest attempt to succeed?

BTE avatar
BTE
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Sounds like a future Elicit feature.

Isaac228c avatar

does it have to use up-to date info, or could gpt-3 with its frozen 'database' work?

DAL59 avatar

@Isaac228c It has to be able to actively research using the internet.

lu avatar

Does it have to be profitable? I'd imagine a lot of attempts going broke due to subtle details, e.g., some caveat in the comments.

SranPandurevic avatar

@lu An important detail. Making an unprofitable bot is something I can whip up tonight after reading the manifold api docs lol

rockenots avatar
rockenots
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@SranPandurevic In a different comment they said it just has to be 'an honest attempt by my judgment, it can't just be "google the post title and invest YES if there is an odd number of vowels"'

AndrewHartman avatar

Does it have to be general? I could see, for example, a bot existing that can parse stock/crypto histories and make a semi-reasonable forecast of price for the subset of markets of that nature.

But a bot that can handle "Will I get at least a B+ on my midterm?" seems like AGI, frankly.

L avatar
L
is predicting YES at 74%

@AndrewHartman it does, doesn't it?

KatjaGrace avatar

Does it have to have any success?

DAL59 avatar

@KatjaGrace No, but it must be an honest attempt by my judgment, it can't just be "google the post title and invest YES if there is an odd number of vowels"/

ManifoldDream avatar

Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition