Resolves YES if as of May 1, 2026, official Chinese government or customs data, or credible trade reports, confirm that export restrictions specifically limiting gallium shipments to Japan remain in effect. Resolves NO if such restrictions have been lifted or significantly eased by that date. This market captures the geopolitical risk impacting the global gallium supply chain, where China controls over 99% of primary production and export policy critically affects Japanese downstream industries. The suspension of US military end-use bans until Nov 27, 2026, and recent price normalization suggest uncertainty about continuation. Only formal government or customs announcements or authoritative trade data count for resolution.

China's export restrictions significantly tighten the market for gallium, affecting global supply and pricing, especially for Japanese sectors reliant on these materials.

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