This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on June 30, 2026 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.
Background: MOFCOM Decree No. 18 (April 2025) imposed export licensing requirements for samarium. A one-year suspension was announced in November 2025 following the Busan diplomatic negotiations. The suspension runs through approximately November 2026.
YES if: The suspension has ended or been revoked, and export licenses are again required for samarium exports as of June 30, 2026 NO if: The Busan suspension (or any subsequent extension) is still in effect on June 30, 2026, meaning no license is required
Resolution sources (priority order):
MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements
China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements
Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy
S&P Global / Fastmarkets commentary on China REE export status
Update 2026-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving this market YES. The core licensing regime under MOFCOM Announcement 18 of 2025 is confirmed to be actively in force as of June 30, 2026. The referenced Busan suspension (mentioned in the market description) applies only to a separate, more recent regulatory layer — not to the core samarium export controls themselves.
Update 2026-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved this market YES. The core licensing regime under MOFCOM Announcement 18 of 2025 is confirmed to be actively in force as of June 30, 2026. The Busan suspension referenced in the market description applies only to a separate, more recent regulatory layer — not to the core samarium export controls themselves.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ99 | |
| 2 | Ṁ88 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
Proposed resolution: YES
Rationale: The research confirms that China's MOFCOM samarium export controls, specifically the core licensing regime established under Announcement 18 of 2025, are actively in force and require export licenses for samarium as of June 30, 2026. Multiple authoritative compliance and legal summaries state that this regime is operative and enforced on the settlement date. There is no evidence of suspension or repeal of the core controls on samarium itself; only a separate, more recent regulatory layer is temp
Sources read: