This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on June 30, 2026 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.
Background: MOFCOM Decree No. 18 (April 2025) imposed export licensing requirements for samarium. A one-year suspension was announced in November 2025 following the Busan diplomatic negotiations. The suspension runs through approximately November 2026.
YES if: The suspension has ended or been revoked, and export licenses are again required for samarium exports as of June 30, 2026 NO if: The Busan suspension (or any subsequent extension) is still in effect on June 30, 2026, meaning no license is required
Resolution sources (priority order):
MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements
China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements
Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy
S&P Global / Fastmarkets commentary on China REE export status
1,000