Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, at any time between market launch and December 31, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) or another Chinese central government authority with export-control jurisdiction formally announces or enforces a policy that materially restricts gallium exports to the United States beyond the pre-2024 baseline.

A material restriction includes any of the following:

• Reinstatement of the December 2024-level export ban on gallium to the United States;

• A new or revised regulation, directive, or enforcement action that results in categorical or widespread denial of export licenses for US-bound gallium;

• The imposition of export conditions that, in practice, function as a ban on gallium exports to the United States.

This market resolves NO if no such material restriction is announced or enforced by that date, including if the current suspension is explicitly extended or lifted without escalation.

Isolated, firm-specific licensing decisions or routine administrative delays do not qualify unless accompanied by evidence of a broader policy or enforcement shift.

Resolution will be determined based on official Chinese government publications or credible reporting from Reuters, Bloomberg, or the United States Department of Commerce.

If available public evidence does not clearly establish whether a material restriction occurred, the market resolves N/A.

Background

China's Ministry of Commerce announced export restrictions on gallium and germanium in July 2023, requiring licensing for exports. In December 2024, China imposed a full ban on gallium exports to the US in retaliation for US export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips. China suspended this ban on November 9, 2025, until November 27, 2026, though export controls requiring licenses from Beijing remain in effect. China produces 94% of the world's gallium, making supply security a critical concern for US semiconductor and defense industries.

Considerations

China's prohibition on exports of dual-use items to US military end users or for military end-use applications remains in place and was not altered by the November suspension. Beijing retains the ability to re-activate stricter controls after the suspension expires. Beijing's moves are tactical rather than ideological, reflecting pragmatic calculations that easing commercial strain can buy diplomatic space without surrendering regulatory authority, and the suspensions reflect a pause in escalation rather than a retraction of China's broader policy objective.