Resolution criteria

• The market resolves to YES if, following the Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026, a new government successfully receives a vote of confidence in the Knesset (requiring at least 61 votes) and is sworn in.

• The market resolves to NO if the Knesset is dissolved and new snap elections are officially triggered without a government being successfully formed, or if no new government has won a vote of confidence and been sworn in by June 1, 2027.

• If the October 27, 2026 election is postponed, the resolution timeline will be extended accordingly. If the election is canceled or does not occur by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve N/A (this is highly unlikely).

Background

Current polling shows a highly fragmented electorate, raising the possibility of a coalition deadlock:

• Netanyahu's right-wing and Haredi bloc is polling around 48 to 51 seats, well short of a majority.

• The anti-Netanyahu Zionist centre-left bloc is polling around 58 to 61 seats, just about the 60 seats need for a majority

• Parties representing Israeli Arabs/Palestinians get the remaining ~10 seats, but both blocs are reluctant or outright refusing to consider forming a governing coalition with these parties

• There is two zionist parties that is not firmly decided on bloc affiliation (Kahol Lavan and Yrsodot Israel), but both are currently polling below the threshold for seats