>If neither Martin nor an AI actually writes it by the deadline (2025 I think) then I'll resolve as N/A, this includes if he dies but an AI version wasn't written yet

I think by this I should resolve NA. No attempt I'm fairly sure I would like and the goal is to determine what happens first, a Martin generated sequel or a really great AI one.

Instead of resolving NA though I'm just gonna extend to 2027

he wont finish writing it anytime soon

No idea if it’s high quality or not but one guy has already used AI to write completed versions of Winds of Winter and Dream of Spring. Now taken down due to copyright infringement.

Conditional on us getting LLMs with arbitrarily long context windows (or some alternative memory mechanism) I think this is actually quite likely, and my bets are mostly on whether or not we'll actually get that in time. I think most of the probability mass is on this market resolving N/A though because I don't expect Martin or an AI to write Winds of Winter by 2025.

Given that Martin dying doesn't resolve YES, this seems unlikely by 2025.

@VivaLaPanda Martin dying resolves N/A, I'm pretty sure.

If it wasn't you specifically making the market I would bet No

I bet yes, but I think its still pretty unlikely since you actually have to like the AIs attempt