@ConsCoz let's resolve this

@SquishyBoy 25/75?

0/100

Just as much a regime change as when Kim Jong-un took over when Kim Jong-il died

I assume this was in response to my comment, so isn't this a yes? We effectively have done what has taken place in Venezuela.

Guys! Everyone agrees chance for a regime change by market close are <1%. What we don't know:

• When must/can the regime change occur?

• Might it resolve to something Trump said with only tangential relevance to reality?

• Might it resolve to a technicality like Khamenei being succeeded by Khamenei?

• If so, would it be deemed a misresolution and be corrected?

This is what y'all are trading on. If criteria were clear, the market would trade at appropiate prices and most of you wouldn't have traded in the first place. So you're trading here not despite bad criteria, but because of bad criteria, incentivizing the creation of bad markets.

@Primer not incentivizing; showing the creator they have made a mess and shouldn’t do that.

@MachiNi I apologize if you felt you were a target of my little rant. I meant to direct this towards the traders who don't complain about missing criteria, but trade anyways and especially those who might know they're trading on Manifold norms and the market's ambiguities instead of real world outcomes.

My reasoning: I'd like to see more prediction markets all over the world, so I'd like Manifold to be an example of prediction markets working fine. Thus there need to be many high quality markets being traded on. But there are incentives to create as well as trade in bad markets instead of good markets, as they tend to be mispriced due to ambiguities. To counteract this, I've been advocating for

• /Primer/resolution-criteria-mandatory-for-y-UNAlSnlS0R

• A norm-shift towards more N/A resolutions of ambiguous markets

And now I'm trying to also raise traders' awareness.

@Primer oh no, no apologies needed. I agree with you.

Trump said yes, resolves yes, thanks. /s

President Trump declares REGIME CHANGE in Iran has occurred "The president insisted that this is regime change, because it's totally different people that were involved in the last regime."

@vdb Betting under the assumption that change must happen before the market close time. This seems to be the only reasonable assumption, as there is no other info for imposing a cutoff time, and without a cutoff time the wait can take forever.

@vdb creator is largest YES holder so I’d be cautious with my assumptions!

how does this resolve for state collapse?

@Balasar the regime collapses

If the USA takes control of Iran directly or not as in they obey to change or compete regime change the market will be resolved to yes

@ConsCoz please include clear resolution criteria

Yes

Would a partial regime change, similar to that of Venezuela count?

Does it have to happen before March 24th (the closing time of this market)?