Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
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@spacedroplet Resolved option 20 to NO per user request and evidence. Also resolved four other options with passed deadlines based on clear evidence from searches. Other options remain uncertain or have future deadlines.
Resolved: - #20 US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026 -> NO: Official US military reports confirm only 13-15 fatalities in the Iran war as of early May 2026, far below 100. - #24 US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC) -> NO: No confirmed reports from major outlets of US ground troops present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026; only airstrikes and speculation. - #38 At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW. -> NO: Ceasefire effective from April 8, 2026, with no military exchanges after April 7; no evidence of activity every single day of April. - #41 Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. -> NO: Trump's public announcement declaring operations 'terminated' was on May 1, 2026, after the April 30 deadline. - #42 Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. -> YES: Iranian government announced acceptance of ceasefire and plans to begin talks with the US in April 2026, confirmed by major outlets like CNN and Al Jazeera.
@spacedroplet @patrik I dispute two of these resolutions. They should both resolve YES:
#38 At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Bot says: -> NO: Ceasefire effective from April 8, 2026, with no military exchanges after April 7; no evidence of activity every single day of April. -
Conflicting evidence:
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-april-30-2026/
(click on Previous/Next to toggle between various days of April)
This market included military activity between Israeli and Iranian proxies too. Therefore, the Israel vs Hezbollah conflict should count. It is an ongoing conflict and was active on all days of April. Should resolve YES.
#41 Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Bot says: -> NO: Trump's public announcement declaring operations 'terminated' was on May 1, 2026, after the April 30 deadline.
Conflicting evidence:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/07/nx-s1-5776377/iran-war-updates
For this option, the bot must have seen the recent glut of articles which discuss how Trump is trying to get around the 60 day clock for 'declaring war'. But that is not actually the question - the question is whether there was a ceasefire or not. And there was, starting Apr 8.
/check-resolutions 6 of the options can resolve now:
1) US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026 - should resolve NO
2) US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC) - should resolve NO
3) Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. - should resolve YES
Iran's government repeatedly and explicitly expressed willingness to engage in talks — submitting peace proposals (10-point on April 7, 14-point around April 30), sending a high-level delegation to Islamabad on April 11, and having its Foreign Minister publicly state openness to diplomacy. This is corroborated by Reuters, BBC, NPR/AP, and CBS News, among others
4) Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. - should resolve YES
April 7–8, 2026 — Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on Truth Social, halting US strikes.
April 21, 2026 — Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely pending an Iranian proposal.
5) At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW. - should resolve YES
6) Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC). - should resolve YES
/check-resolutions Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire.
LloydsList is a credible source for maritime news.
@Hakari User's request regarding option 39 is in good faith, providing relevant sources. A US-Iran ceasefire was first announced around April 7, 2026. Pre-ceasefire, Lloyd's List (March 18) reported one tanker paying ~$2m for transit via a safe corridor. Post-ceasefire reports (e.g., Reuters April 15 citing Lloyd's and NYT on plans to levy) discuss demands and potential tolls, but no specified major outlet confirms tolls charged on at least one ship after April 7. Option 39 remains unresolved due to lack of definitive evidence. No evidence found to resolve any other options.
/clarify-resolution does this include Israel strikes on Lebanon?
/check-resolutions
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.
https://www.marinetraffic.org/HORMUZ%20STRAIT/ship-traffic-tracker
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
It is April 16 UTC and traffic well below 80% of pre conflict levels (various analytics are claiming ~12%)
@GCS Resolved option 2 to NO based on clear evidence from MarineTraffic and Reuters data showing traffic did not reach 80% of pre-conflict levels by April 15, 2026. No other options have conclusive evidence for resolution yet.
Resolved: - #2 Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data. -> NO: Multiple Reuters and MarineTraffic reports confirm tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) levels as of April 15, 2026. Traffic has plummeted over 95%, with recent levels at 10% or less of normal, limited to 14-15 vessels over several days, well short of the threshold.
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: This suggestion overlaps significantly with existing option 33 ('Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026'), which already covers nuclear escalation against the US or Israel by Iran-aligned actors. While specifying a 'foreign nation allied with Iran' (e.g., potential references to Russia, North Korea, or Pakistan in fringe discussions) introduces a minor distinction, the core theme of Iran-side nuclear attack is not unique. Searches reveal only speculative, low-engagement social media chatter with no credible, timely indications of such an event, confirming it's extremely unlikely (<10% probability) and thus boring 'dead money' rather than an engaging, uncertain bet. The market already has heavy nuclear-themed coverage, leaving no slot for variants.
@GuyCohen #43 Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. This option resolves YES if Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or an equivalent major international outlet confirms that Iran (the Iranian government or its military forces) or its proxies (non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, or similar groups directly backed, controlled, or directed by Iran) detonate a nuclear weapon specifically targeting the territory of the US or Israel at any point in 2026. 'Detonate' means a nuclear explosion occurs, whether via missile, aircraft, or other delivery. The targeting must be intentional against US or Israeli territory (including military bases, ships, or aircraft if clearly aimed at the US/Israel). It resolves NO if no such confirmed detonation happens in 2026, or if the actor is not Iran or its proxies (e.g., actions by sovereign allied countries like Syria or Russia, even in retaliation for strikes on Iran, do not count, as they are not proxies). Evidence must come explicitly from the listed outlets attributing the detonation to Iran/proxies and confirming the targeting and nuclear nature.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Accepted: This is a unique, high-stakes counterpart to the existing US/Israel nuclear option, exploring Iranian nuclear first-use amid timely tensions around nuclear sites and missile threats. Rewritten for clarity, resolvability, and consistency with market style.
@spacedroplet /clarify-resolution "Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet."
Could this also include countries allied with Iran who hit the US or Israel in retaliation for actions against Iran?
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: This suggestion overlaps thematically with option 31 (Trump announcing cessation of US military operations), covering public de-escalation signals by Trump. The core concept of a Trump de-escalation announcement is already represented; we prioritize fundamentally unique angles for a curated market.