Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
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@LeifKBrooks Your option was not accepted: Rejected: Not concrete and resolvable. Terms like 'economic crash' and 'political revolution' are subjective and undefined, lacking clear verification criteria or sources. Causality ('as a result of Strait of Hormuz obstruction') is hard to establish objectively. Overlaps thematically with existing Hormuz traffic (option 2) and oil price/economic impact options.
Built a new website to help everyone monitor the situation: https://isthestraitopentoday.com/
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@JoshSnider erm excuse me sir, markets are not in freefall. down 4.37%(spx) since start of conflict. was down 45% during great recession. its down but honestly not that much.
@XCorporation Your option was accepted and added as: More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026
Accepted: Highly timely amid recent unconfirmed Iranian claims and US reports of a single attack causing ~100 troop casualties (March 2026); unique single-event massive casualty angle vs existing cumulative military options; resolvable and engaging.
@XCorporation Your option was approved but I couldn't add it due to a technical error. Please try again.
@XCorporation Your option was accepted and added as: US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.
Unique political escalation angle amid ongoing conflict without formal declaration; timely given recent War Powers debates and congressional votes; uncertain (~20-40% odds) and resolvable via official records/news.
@XCorporation Your option was not accepted: Rejected: This suggestion centers on an Israel-Iran event rather than direct US-Iran dynamics, duplicating the theme of high-profile casualties already covered by US military casualty options. The market prioritizes US-focused props, and this lacks a specific timeframe for resolution. A separate Israel-Iran market would be more appropriate.
@spacedroplet @patrik i disagree with his assesment, there are options which involve israel, even saudi arabia, turkey, and even a market "will us or israel strike iranian power plant." selective enforcement, thinks ai is trained to hate me for earlier goofyness
@XCorporation Your option was accepted and added as: US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.
This captures a timely and unique angle on US efforts to neutralize Iran's nuclear program via special operations, amid recent reports of strikes on Fordow and discussions of commando raids to secure moved uranium stockpiles. It's resolvable via credible media and IAEA verification, genuinely uncertain, and distinct from existing nuclear-related options like stockpile disappearance or weaponization.
@Hakari #19 The US-Iran war remains ongoing as of December 31, 2026 This option checks the status of the US-Iran war specifically as of the end of December 31, 2026 (UTC). It resolves YES if there is active conflict—defined as at least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies—on or immediately around that date, per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, ISW, or equivalent major sources. It resolves NO if major sources report the war as having ended (e.g., ceasefire holding, no active hostilities) by the close of December 31, 2026 (UTC). The phrase 'remains ongoing' does not require uninterrupted conflict throughout 2026; temporary stops or restarts before the date are irrelevant. Only the status on the resolution date matters.
Updated: The US-Iran war remains ongoing as of December 31, 2026 -> The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026
/check-resolutions
Iran struck and damaged more than three major energy facilities in the region:
Qatar: Iranian missiles directly targeted the Ras Laffan Industrial City, triggering a major fire. This complex is the central hub for Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations.
Saudi Arabia: Strikes hit the Samref refinery in Yanbu on the Red Sea and forced the temporary shutdown of the Ras Tanura refinery on the eastern coast, which is the country's largest refining facility.
United Arab Emirates: A drone attack caused a fire at a facility within Abu Dhabi's Ruwais Industrial Complex, one of the largest oil refineries in the Middle East.
Bahrain: The Bapco Energies refinery complex was attacked, disrupting operations and forcing the state-owned group to issue a formal force majeure notice.
Production and Export Disruption:
The operational disruptions caused by these strikes far exceeded the 5% threshold:
Qatar: The damage to Ras Laffan forced QatarEnergy to completely halt LNG production and declare force majeure by early March. This single event temporarily removed approximately 20% of the world's LNG supply from the global market.
Saudi Arabia: Aramco was forced to cut crude oil production by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day—roughly 25% of its standard daily output.
Broader GCC Impact: Kuwait and Bahrain had to drastically cut back their respective oil production due to an immediate lack of safe storage capacity and the inability to access alternative export routes outside of the blocked Gulf.
Supporting Sources
@Hakari Option 22 resolved YES due to clear evidence of Iranian attacks on at least four major GCC energy facilities with over 5% production/export disruptions, verified across multiple sources. No other options have sufficient evidence for resolution at this time.
Resolved: - #22 Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026. -> YES: Multiple confirmed Iranian strikes on major energy facilities in GCC states (Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, Saudi Arabia's SAMREF Yanbu and Ras Tanura refineries, UAE's Ruwais refinery, Bahrain's Bapco refinery) caused extensive damage, fires, shutdowns, and force majeure declarations. Disruptions exceeded 5%: Qatar halted ~20% of global LNG supply; Saudi cut ~2-2.5M bpd oil production (~25%). Reported by Reuters, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, CNBC.
@Chumchulum Your option was accepted and added as: Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026
Timely and unique angle on nuclear proliferation risks amid current reports of Iran's unaccounted HEU post-strikes. Adds uncertainty about loose fissile material without overlapping existing nuclear production or strike options. Clear resolution via reputable sources.