Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
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@patrik Resolved option 13 to NO (gas prices stayed under $5) and option 14 to YES (Saudi airstrikes occurred). Other options lack conclusive evidence for resolution.
Resolved: - #13 US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026 -> NO: National average regular gasoline price on June 1, 2026 was $4.322/gallon per AAA data; remained below $5 throughout the period. - #14 Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026 -> YES: Saudi Arabia conducted covert airstrikes on Iranian targets in late March 2026, confirmed by multiple reports including Reuters.
/check-resolutions for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026.
Evidence from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-launched-covert-attacks-iran-regional-war-widened-sources-2026-05-12/
@patrik @spacedroplet Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes against Iran per the attached source. Resolve YES.
Also please resolve the "gas prices reach $5 per gallon by June" to NO.
@spacedroplet Resolved option 20 to NO per user request and evidence. Also resolved four other options with passed deadlines based on clear evidence from searches. Other options remain uncertain or have future deadlines.
Resolved: - #20 US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026 -> NO: Official US military reports confirm only 13-15 fatalities in the Iran war as of early May 2026, far below 100. - #24 US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC) -> NO: No confirmed reports from major outlets of US ground troops present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026; only airstrikes and speculation. - #38 At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW. -> NO: Ceasefire effective from April 8, 2026, with no military exchanges after April 7; no evidence of activity every single day of April. - #41 Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. -> NO: Trump's public announcement declaring operations 'terminated' was on May 1, 2026, after the April 30 deadline. - #42 Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. -> YES: Iranian government announced acceptance of ceasefire and plans to begin talks with the US in April 2026, confirmed by major outlets like CNN and Al Jazeera.
@spacedroplet @patrik I dispute two of these resolutions. They should both resolve YES:
#38 At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Bot says: -> NO: Ceasefire effective from April 8, 2026, with no military exchanges after April 7; no evidence of activity every single day of April. -
Conflicting evidence:
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-april-30-2026/
(click on Previous/Next to toggle between various days of April)
This market included military activity between Israeli and Iranian proxies too. Therefore, the Israel vs Hezbollah conflict should count. It is an ongoing conflict and was active on all days of April. Should resolve YES.
#41 Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Bot says: -> NO: Trump's public announcement declaring operations 'terminated' was on May 1, 2026, after the April 30 deadline.
Conflicting evidence:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/07/nx-s1-5776377/iran-war-updates
For this option, the bot must have seen the recent glut of articles which discuss how Trump is trying to get around the 60 day clock for 'declaring war'. But that is not actually the question - the question is whether there was a ceasefire or not. And there was, starting Apr 8.
/check-resolutions 6 of the options can resolve now:
1) US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026 - should resolve NO
2) US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC) - should resolve NO
3) Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. - should resolve YES
Iran's government repeatedly and explicitly expressed willingness to engage in talks — submitting peace proposals (10-point on April 7, 14-point around April 30), sending a high-level delegation to Islamabad on April 11, and having its Foreign Minister publicly state openness to diplomacy. This is corroborated by Reuters, BBC, NPR/AP, and CBS News, among others
4) Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. - should resolve YES
April 7–8, 2026 — Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on Truth Social, halting US strikes.
April 21, 2026 — Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely pending an Iranian proposal.
5) At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW. - should resolve YES
6) Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC). - should resolve YES
/check-resolutions Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire.
LloydsList is a credible source for maritime news.
@Hakari User's request regarding option 39 is in good faith, providing relevant sources. A US-Iran ceasefire was first announced around April 7, 2026. Pre-ceasefire, Lloyd's List (March 18) reported one tanker paying ~$2m for transit via a safe corridor. Post-ceasefire reports (e.g., Reuters April 15 citing Lloyd's and NYT on plans to levy) discuss demands and potential tolls, but no specified major outlet confirms tolls charged on at least one ship after April 7. Option 39 remains unresolved due to lack of definitive evidence. No evidence found to resolve any other options.
/clarify-resolution does this include Israel strikes on Lebanon?