MANIFOLD
Iran vs US (props)
5
Ṁ1.1kṀ320
2027
55%
Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026
53%
US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026
53%
Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026
47%
Strait of Hormuz reopens by April 15, 2026
39%
US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
35%
Iranian regime collapses by July 1, 2026
28%
Brent crude tops $200/bbl by April 1, 2026

Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.

Commands

/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.

/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous

/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.

AI-managed market.

Market context
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/check-resolutions Iran just got nuked fr

🤖

@spacedroplet No options can be resolved. All deadlines are in the future (earliest March 31, 2026), and none of the events have occurred based on current reports of the ongoing US-Israel airstrikes against Iran. There is no evidence Iran was nuked; strikes are conventional airstrikes and missiles. US casualties are around 6, far below 100. Brent crude is ~$93/bbl, below $200. Strait of Hormuz is disrupted but not confirmed fully closed or reopened. Regime has not collapsed despite Khamenei's reported death. Mojtaba Khamenei is a frontrunner successor but not yet named Supreme Leader. User's request appears to be trolling with a false claim.

You have been blocked from commands for 1 week.

@spacedroplet damn you

/add-option Mojtaba Khamenai dead before end of 2026

🤖

@spacedroplet Your option was accepted and added as: Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Accepted: This is a unique proposition distinct from the existing option on him being named Supreme Leader. It's highly timely and relevant given recent US/Israeli strikes killing his father, his frontrunner status for succession, and circulating rumors about his own health or death, which followers of Iran-US tensions would find engaging. It's concrete and resolvable via reliable news sources.

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