Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
14
1kṀ9732029
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year. That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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