Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, in the event that regime change occurs in Iran, credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, etc.) reports that the change was achieved primarily through a military coup—defined as the forcible seizure of power by military or paramilitary forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or regular military) displacing the existing clerical leadership. The coup must involve the military taking direct control of state institutions and governance. Examples of such types of coups: Brazil 1964, Chile 1973, Argentina 1976.

This market resolves NO if regime change occurs through other means: purely popular revolution (French Revolution, USSR, Romania), civil war (must be longer than 1 year, Syria is an example), foreign military occupation (Iraq, Afghanistan), or voluntary transition of power (Brazil 1985, Chile 1990). American or israeli airstrikes, blockade or covert operations doesn't count as foreign military occupation. A civic-military coup similar to what happened in Brazil will still be considered a military coup. For it to be a popular revolution, its the people who would need to have occupied these places.

This market resolves N/A if no regime change occurs in Iran.

In case the situation gets too hard to properly classify/controversial, then the resolution criteria will be augmented by:
"Outcome-Based Definition: -The market will look to the composition of the new government. If, 30 days after the fall of the previous government, the effective head of state and key ministers are active-duty military personnel or officers acting under a military junta, the market resolves YES. If the new leadership is composed of civilians who came to power through election or protest movement appointment, the market resolves NO."

Background

Iran begins 2026 with extensive protests sparked by its weak economy. Prolonged economic exhaustion and a broader loss of confidence in the Iranian state after historic military and foreign policy setbacks in 2025 means 2026 may be the Islamic Republic's hardest ever year.

The Iranian military has a dual architecture: Artesh, the regular armed forces of around 420,000 men, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite, ideologically driven military with roughly 190,000 personnel. The political system has been moving from clerical into military leadership as the IRGC has grown into the country's most powerful economic and political actor.

Considerations

While the IRGC currently sustains regime survival, comparative authoritarian studies show that militarized systems are prone to coups, factionalism, and overreach—especially during succession crises. Should the IRGC perceive clerical leadership as a liability—particularly in a succession crisis following Khamenei's death—it may prioritize institutional survival over ideological fidelity.

However, the likelihood of the current Iranian protests resulting in an IRGC takeover of the Islamic Republic is minimal. Ali Khamenei carefully selects senior IRGC commanders and rotates them every few years to ensure loyalty to the regime. If the present government collapses, the most likely outcome would be a military dictatorship by the IRGC, which would likely install a figurehead religious leader to give their rule the mantle of legitimacy.
The regular military (Artesh) is therefore more likely to be involved in a military coup. They could internally decide that they have legitimacy to do so because of protests, or be supported/coordinated by foreign powers like the US/Israel, or even be bribed with the promise of getting IRGC's spoils (it currently has ENORMOUS economic privileges)/being bribed to do it.

This market will be resolved before the resolution date in case of an outcome.

This description was generated by AI.