Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran launches retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. embassies, military installations, or oil infrastructure throughout the Middle East before June 1, 2026. The 2026 Iran War is a conflict centered on Iran that was initiated by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026. Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming Iranian attacks on U.S. targets or interests before the deadline.

Background

On February 25, 2026, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a "historic" agreement with the United States to avert military conflict was "within reach" ahead of renewed talks in Geneva, emphasizing that diplomacy must be prioritized to avoid further escalation. However, on February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership. The opening salvo took out the heart of the Iranian regime, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and triggered a torrent of hundreds of retaliatory missiles and thousands of drones from Iran across the Middle East.

Considerations

Iran has already launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. embassies, military installations, and oil infrastructure throughout the Middle East in response to the February 28 strikes. The question's timeframe (before June) extends well beyond the initial retaliation that has already occurred, making the resolution outcome dependent on whether additional Iranian attacks occur during the specified period.