According to YouGov, Nate Silver (who attended Manifest 2023 and 2024) has 47% name recognition. Will someone attend who has higher, according to YouGov? (They must be polled by YouGov to count. And I will be comparing to Nate’s name recognition then, if it changes.)

If Manifest 2025 does not occur, resolves NO. If something happens to YouGov, I will seek alternate resolution criteria based on the market spirit.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

• Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that their initial check of invited speakers did not reveal anyone more famous than Nate Silver. However, if information is subsequently provided identifying an attendee (who may not have been on the invited speakers list) who is confirmed to be more famous than Nate Silver according to YouGov, the creator will re-resolve the market accordingly.