Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver?
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According to YouGov, Nate Silver (who attended Manifest 2023 and 2024) has 47% name recognition. Will someone attend who has higher, according to YouGov? (They must be polled by YouGov to count. And I will be comparing to Nate’s name recognition then, if it changes.)
If Manifest 2025 does not occur, resolves NO. If something happens to YouGov, I will seek alternate resolution criteria based on the market spirit.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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