Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver, according to YouGov?
17
1kṀ14702026
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
According to YouGov, Nate Silver (who attended Manifest 2023 and 2024) has 47% name recognition. Will someone attend who has higher, according to YouGov? (They must be polled by YouGov to count. And I will be comparing to Nate’s name recognition then, if it changes.)
If Manifest 2025 does not occur, resolves NO. If something happens to YouGov, I will seek alternate resolution criteria based on the market spirit.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions
Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?
36% chance
Will Nate Silver join Bluesky before 2026?
50% chance
Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?
Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
47% chance
Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?
Will any Manifest attendees be elected to public office in 2026 or earlier?
89% chance
Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?