Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

129

11kṀ57k

2029

98.3%

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

97%

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

93%

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

90%

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

89%

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

86%

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

85%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

85%

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

82%

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

79%

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

79%

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

77%

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

76%

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

76%

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

75%

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

75%

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

74%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

73%

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

73%

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

72%

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.

I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:

Also See:

Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
- Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:
- The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.
- A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.

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bought Ṁ300 YES

@StopPunting resolves yes

bought Ṁ100 YES

@StopPunting resolves yes?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@StopPunting can this resolve yes?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@StopPunting we’re dancing really close to this right now, not sure how we’re going to go 4 years without this happening

Is there more coming on this (like an official date or account or whatever) or should this already resolve "YES"?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@StopPunting Trump won’t have to pardon family members because he’ll use extra-judicial pressure to make sure they never get charged with anything in the first place

Predict the Categories Nate/Manifold will out-perform each other the most in!

@StopPunting This can resolve NO. They are all confirmed

@FergusArgyll the wording implies that it counts for YES if they leave their positions by the 2026 midterms—it's not just about confirmation.

@Ziddletwix I thought you were crazy but Claude agrees with you. [0]

I'm honestly shocked! I thought "by" means it has to happen before but not until.

I will, however, defer to our super intelligent overlords

[0] https://claude.ai/share/1ecaca04-cd99-41bc-af7f-4715aebd3410

@FergusArgyll as another super intelligent overlord I will agree that I read the intention as keeping their posts by the date

bought Ṁ787 YES

@StopPunting resolves YES

@StopPunting resolves YES: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/us/politics/trump-constitutional-crisis.html

@StopPunting Resolves NO.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@StopPunting Think this is already true.

Anybody have links for me to confirm? Also what do we think qualifies as a news article (vs op-ed I'm guessing)?

Probabilities recorded and tracking created for the other market!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13cRHYqQ9FuVf4HK9_tRnD4EFIffo1bbbWIm8U2uVZyo/edit?usp=sharing

Locking in the percentages tomorrow for the Nate vs Manifold competition!!

reposted

Getting percentages for comparison long term this weekend! Help make sure Manifold can beat Nate!

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 49% order

what does « trumps approval rating » by 2026 midterms mean? Because technically it means that if trump reaches the approval rating at any point between the question creation and midterm 2026 the question should resolve to yes. So I don’t get the current odds….

@RichardKnoche My impression is that it means his approval rating at the day of the 2026 midterms, not if it ever reaches that point beforehand. Let me know if I'm off and if others trading also had the impression that Richard has!

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