Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

11kṀ42k

2029

91%

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

90%

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

89%

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

87%

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

86%

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

85%

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

85%

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

84%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

83%

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

83%

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

83%

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

82%

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

79%

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

78%

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

78%

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

77%

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

76%

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

73%

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

73%

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

73%

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.

I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:

Also See:

Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
- Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:
- The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.
- A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.

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17 Comments

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Is there more coming on this (like an official date or account or whatever) or should this already resolve "YES"?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@StopPunting Trump won’t have to pardon family members because he’ll use extra-judicial pressure to make sure they never get charged with anything in the first place

Predict the Categories Nate/Manifold will out-perform each other the most in!

@StopPunting This can resolve NO. They are all confirmed

@FergusArgyll the wording implies that it counts for YES if they leave their positions by the 2026 midterms—it's not just about confirmation.

@Ziddletwix I thought you were crazy but Claude agrees with you. [0]

I'm honestly shocked! I thought "by" means it has to happen before but not until.

I will, however, defer to our super intelligent overlords

[0] https://claude.ai/share/1ecaca04-cd99-41bc-af7f-4715aebd3410

@FergusArgyll as another super intelligent overlord I will agree that I read the intention as keeping their posts by the date

bought Ṁ787 YES

@StopPunting resolves YES

@StopPunting resolves YES: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/us/politics/trump-constitutional-crisis.html

@StopPunting Resolves NO.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@StopPunting Think this is already true.

Anybody have links for me to confirm? Also what do we think qualifies as a news article (vs op-ed I'm guessing)?

Probabilities recorded and tracking created for the other market!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13cRHYqQ9FuVf4HK9_tRnD4EFIffo1bbbWIm8U2uVZyo/edit?usp=sharing

Locking in the percentages tomorrow for the Nate vs Manifold competition!!

reposted

Getting percentages for comparison long term this weekend! Help make sure Manifold can beat Nate!

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 49% order

what does « trumps approval rating » by 2026 midterms mean? Because technically it means that if trump reaches the approval rating at any point between the question creation and midterm 2026 the question should resolve to yes. So I don’t get the current odds….

@RichardKnoche My impression is that it means his approval rating at the day of the 2026 midterms, not if it ever reaches that point beforehand. Let me know if I'm off and if others trading also had the impression that Richard has!

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