Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86): https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029. I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See: @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca @/StopPunting/which-trump-term-prediction-categor Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification: Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand. Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification: The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms. A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, [Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%), followed by [Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%) and [Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%) are most likely. See the market for live updates (177 traders, as of May 25, 2026).

Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

MANIFOLD

Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

177

Ṁ11kṀ80k

2029

95%

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

92%

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

90%

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

89%

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

88%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

87%

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

85%

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

85%

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

80%

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

79%

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

79%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

78%

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

78%

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

76%

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

76%

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

76%

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

72%

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

71%

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

70%

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

68%

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.

I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:

Also See:

Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
- Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:
- The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.
- A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.

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Nate Silver vs. Allan Lichtman stock

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@StopPunting I don't understand this. If Marc Thiessen, 16 years a columnist at the Post, doesn't count, who would?

Don't really know much about him, can others confirm that Marc is "explicitly pro-trump"?

@StopPunting

Here's his dumbass weekly column, just week after week of running absurd regime propaganda. At the beginning of this year he was like "man my normal '10 best things about the president' column just isn't enough this year. Gotta do an exceptional '20 best things' for the best president ever, unlike the devil Kamala would would have brought the apocalypse".

Here's a more exhaustive list of his media output, curated by himself or his office. I'm seeing that he did Brian Kilmeade last week and went all "Trump's first term created world peace, then Biden's term created world war, now Trump's doing a great job on world peace again".

Between the column, his Twitter, and these extras there's one throughline which is assuring his audience that Trump will do everything good and nothing bad. It's the lede and bottom line of pretty much everything he puts out.

anyway my point isn't to try and convince anyone, i'm just wondering what nate silver even means if thiessen doesn't count

bought Ṁ884 YES

@marvingardens thanks for the links, looks like it fits the criteria to me

bought Ṁ146 YES

@StopPunting This happened a month ago

bought Ṁ121 YES

@StopPunting This happened last week

@StopPunting Does this include opinion pieces, such as https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/opinion/trump-biden-age-affordability.html?

@DanielTilkin yeah I think it would have to include those

bought Ṁ573 YES

@StopPunting This happened at least twice last year https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/business/media/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times.html

bought Ṁ350 YES

@StopPunting this can resolve yes I believe.

@StopPunting resolves yes

bought Ṁ300 YES

@StopPunting resolves yes

bought Ṁ100 YES

@StopPunting resolves yes?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@StopPunting can this resolve yes?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@StopPunting we’re dancing really close to this right now, not sure how we’re going to go 4 years without this happening

Is there more coming on this (like an official date or account or whatever) or should this already resolve "YES"?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@StopPunting Trump won’t have to pardon family members because he’ll use extra-judicial pressure to make sure they never get charged with anything in the first place