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MANIFOLD
Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions
171
Ṁ11kṀ77k
2029
95%
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
92%
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
90%
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
89%
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
88%
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
88%
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
86%
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
85%
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
85%
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
84%
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
84%
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
79%
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
79%
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
79%
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
78%
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
78%
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
76%
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
76%
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
73%
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
72%
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.


I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:


Also See:

  • Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:

    • Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.

  • Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:

    • The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.

    • A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump
Manifold
Nate Silver
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@StopPunting Does this include opinion pieces, such as https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/opinion/trump-biden-age-affordability.html?

@DanielTilkin yeah I think it would have to include those

bought Ṁ573 YES

@StopPunting This happened at least twice last year https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/business/media/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times.html

bought Ṁ350 YES

@StopPunting this can resolve yes I believe.

@StopPunting resolves yes

@StopPunting resolves yes

bought Ṁ300 YES

@StopPunting resolves yes

bought Ṁ100 YES

@StopPunting resolves yes?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@StopPunting can this resolve yes?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@StopPunting we’re dancing really close to this right now, not sure how we’re going to go 4 years without this happening

Is there more coming on this (like an official date or account or whatever) or should this already resolve "YES"?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@StopPunting Trump won’t have to pardon family members because he’ll use extra-judicial pressure to make sure they never get charged with anything in the first place

Predict the Categories Nate/Manifold will out-perform each other the most in!

@StopPunting This can resolve NO. They are all confirmed

@FergusArgyll the wording implies that it counts for YES if they leave their positions by the 2026 midterms—it's not just about confirmation.

@Ziddletwix I thought you were crazy but Claude agrees with you. [0]

I'm honestly shocked! I thought "by" means it has to happen before but not until.

I will, however, defer to our super intelligent overlords

[0] https://claude.ai/share/1ecaca04-cd99-41bc-af7f-4715aebd3410

@FergusArgyll as another super intelligent overlord I will agree that I read the intention as keeping their posts by the date

bought Ṁ787 YES

@StopPunting resolves YES

@StopPunting resolves YES: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/us/politics/trump-constitutional-crisis.html

@StopPunting Resolves NO.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@StopPunting Think this is already true.

Anybody have links for me to confirm? Also what do we think qualifies as a news article (vs op-ed I'm guessing)?


Probabilities recorded and tracking created for the other market!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13cRHYqQ9FuVf4HK9_tRnD4EFIffo1bbbWIm8U2uVZyo/edit?usp=sharing

Locking in the percentages tomorrow for the Nate vs Manifold competition!!

reposted

Getting percentages for comparison long term this weekend! Help make sure Manifold can beat Nate!

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