Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

136

11kṀ60k

2029

98.5%

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

96%

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

93%

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

89%

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

86%

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

86%

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

85%

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

79%

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

79%

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

78%

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

78%

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

75%

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

75%

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

75%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

74%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

73%

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

73%

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

73%

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

73%

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

73%

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.

I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:

Also See:

Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
- Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:
- The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.
- A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.

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