Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold? | Manifold

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

2

1kṀ45

2030

15%

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

9%

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

15%

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

9%

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

9%

Economy (0 of 17 Resolved)

9%

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

9%

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Manifold Brier)

9%

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

9%

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

9%

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Originally from this Article:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

Overall Competition:

That question (and this question) uses the time locked percentages from Manifold which was two weeks after Nates' article was published (and is why some questions are excluded).

Spreadsheet Used For Tracking

Live Manifold Tracking Market of Individual Questions:

Inverse Market for Manifold most Overperforming Nate:

Notes:

Excluded "Trump Cabinet" category because it only had 4 predictions and 2 were N/A'd due to the time difference

Trump's Second Term

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