Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally). Locking in the percentages from this market on 2/9/2025 (giving Manifold a 2 week advantage from when the article was published) in order to give it enough time for volume. After that I will track results in a publicly available spreadsheet.
Because of the advantage I ignored the follow predictions:
#41 Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days.
#43 Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations.
#44 At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms.
#55 Tariffs were announced in advantage time gap
#66 The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days
Current Tracking Spreadsheet
Also See:
1,000