Prop Bets: Manifold Party Election Pastcasting
➕
Plus
11
Ṁ5459
resolved Nov 5
Resolved
NO
A third-party candidate gets electoral votes
Resolved
NO
Landslide (one candidate gets more than 60% of the popular vote)
Resolved
NO
Disputed winner of election
Resolved
NO
Democratic candidate wins election
Resolved
YES
Event goes past 3:30
Resolved
NO
Event goes past 3:45
Resolved
NO
Conflux thinks event went "better than expected" afterward
Resolved
NO
Anonymity of candidates/election is somehow ruined
Resolved
YES
In addition to covering Mystery Election, the event covers Mystery Election + 4
Resolved
NO
The audience thinks (in vote after) that Mystery Election (which was selected randomly) has more drama than the 2024 election
Resolved
YES
It starts before 3:05
Resolved
NO
The Republican nomination has multiple ballots
Resolved
YES
The Democratic nomination has multiple ballots
Resolved
YES
Billy J defeats Billy M in Mystery+4 Election Rematch
Resolved
NO
It is 1892

I'm running Election Pastcasting at 3pm at the Manifold Election Day Watch Party! In this event, I will regale audiences with the tale of a randomly selected Mystery Election from US history — with names and details anonymized. How will it go?

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

#2024 US Election
#Manifold
#Elections
#Manifold Users
#Prop Bets
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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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87 Trades

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