Everything that happens between November 5th 00:00 EST to November 6th 06:00 (am) PST will be considered as Presidential Election Day.
Submission will be strictly moderated
I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason, especially low value answers and repetitive submissions according to my judgement. Please ask beforehand. [payments for submissions won't be returned]
Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed.
Any submissions that contain insults or strong political opinions toward politicians will be deleted by me at my own discretion.
Resolution criteria
All resolutions require proof posted as a comment for me to resolve within 24 hours. Otherwise, I will resolve them after 24 hours as if they have not happened. [on November 7th at 06:00 (am) PST]
Any mentions, says, comments etc. submissions will be resolved based on my own judgment if not mentioned otherwise. I will be fairly relaxed with words and phrasings. All of those statements can be made in a speech, interview, on social media, etc.
Result submissions will be determined based on election results. Everything else is dependent on the market-defined timeframe.
1,000
3.00@traders Please provide proof for the last open submissions, otherwise they'll resolve NO in a few hours (accordingly to the description).
@Choms That is not during the defined time frame, see comment here (https://manifold.markets/Lion/presidential-elections-prop-bets-wh#o8fzu5bezor) /description
@Lion ok, second try 😂
https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/1853861537968017713 (found it reposted a couple times on Twitter but I don't have TikTok to check there)
@AlexanderMiller I changed this to Jack's election market and decluttered it a little bit. Tell me if you don't like it.
There is currently a limit of 2 submissions per user. If you have additional good ideas and would like to contribute more, please feel encouraged to ask. My DMs and the comment section always are open. The primary reason is to maintain the spirit of the market. (I plan to extend this limit over time.)
Gonna N/A the states ones tomorrow [done]
[Updated]
@CateHall I'm checking the edit history and it seems it was always there. Gotta save room for everyone to submit something since it's 100 open options max.
@CateHall The title stated a maximum of 2 submissions per user since the creation of the question. I haven't made any changes yet. If you would like a refund for your submissions, I will process it for you.
As mentioned in the description, I am moderating the answers. The primary reason is to maintain the spirit of the market. I have created numerous more serious primary and caucus markets in the past and plan to continue doing so in the future for upcoming elections. However, this specific market aims to engage more people in politics by featuring various topics and fun questions, rather than all answers adopting a serious tone. The goal is to have a variety of answers that resonate with everyone. People appreciate this format in general, even if it means some may disagree with me and my decisions regarding marking submissions as N/A.
Due to the 100 answer limit, there isn't much space for every submission, especially those that are very repetitive.
There are already several questions on Manifold about this topic and I genuinely believe it deserves an additional question. This appeals to a more informed audience and I am personally looking forward to betting on them. However, that doesn't necessarily mean these questions fit within the spirit of this particular market.
I apologize if my previous message seemed a bit harsh and short. I didn't have time at that moment to address the issue properly. This isn't meant to be taken personally by any means.
If you have any further questions, please feel free to ask.
@Lion Cool, I appreciate that. If you could process the refund, I'd appreciate it -- if not, it's on me for missing it in the description.
@Marnix Changed it to Trump only. Tell me if you don't like it.
@Joshua Sorry, I'll take a look into this market next week. My goal was to have it up before pinging traders in the ST market, which is why it has (a few) flaws, including the title. Currently, I'm spending a little less time on Manifold.