Presidential Election Day Prop Bets [November 5th] (add your own, 2/user)
49
1.6kแน€11k
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
YES
Jimmy Carter is alive
Resolved
YES
Trump wins the election
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift tells fans to vote
Resolved
NO
This market has at least 1000 traders
Resolved
YES
Trump tweets on X
Resolved
NO
Biden is recorded farting
Resolved
NO
A candidate says something that is "bleeped" on broadcast
Resolved
NO
Associated Press declares a winner
Resolved
YES
Trump declares victory before AP declares a winner
Resolved
NO
@Jack's election market has one candidate above 95% to win at midnight on November 6th (PST) [12.00 AM PST]
Resolved
NO
A state that Manifold Politics had at 95%+ to vote for a certain candidate at the start of the day votes for a different candidate
Resolved
N/A
Trump wins Arizona
Resolved
N/A
Trump wins Georgia
Resolved
N/A
Trump wins Michigan
Resolved
N/A
Trump wins Nevada
Resolved
N/A
Trump wins Pennsylvania
Resolved
N/A
Trump wins Wisconsin
Resolved
N/A
Trump wins North Carolina
Resolved
YES
Javier Milei mentions Trump
Resolved
N/A
Turnout is more than 20% lower than in 2020 across the nation

Everything that happens between November 5th 00:00 EST to November 6th 06:00 (am) PST will be considered as Presidential Election Day.

  • Submission will be strictly moderated

    • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason, especially low value answers and repetitive submissions according to my judgement. Please ask beforehand. [payments for submissions won't be returned]

    • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed.

    • Any submissions that contain insults or strong political opinions toward politicians will be deleted by me at my own discretion.

  • Resolution criteria

    • All resolutions require proof posted as a comment for me to resolve within 24 hours. Otherwise, I will resolve them after 24 hours as if they have not happened. [on November 7th at 06:00 (am) PST]

    • Any mentions, says, comments etc. submissions will be resolved based on my own judgment if not mentioned otherwise. I will be fairly relaxed with words and phrasings. All of those statements can be made in a speech, interview, on social media, etc.

    • Result submissions will be determined based on election results. Everything else is dependent on the market-defined timeframe.

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