Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
Mini
48
แน11kJan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
95%
Any Amazon employee
88%
Any Meta employee
88%
Any OpenAI employee
85%
Any Apple employee
82%
Any Huawei employee
74%
Anyone who placed a bet in 2022, but not in 2023
67%
Any Goldman Sachs employee
63%
Any employee (CEO not included) of Polymarket
60%
Any Dell employee
60%
Any Netflix employee
58%
Anyone who spent at least 24 hours straight under 10% in this market (including "any"/"anyone" answers)
58%
Anyone who made a Manifold account after finding out about the site from Bet on Love
51%
Any Lenovo employee
41%
Any Tencent employee
40%
Any Sony employee
36%
Nate Silver
34%
Destiny
34%
Anyone with 10,000 or more followers on SoundCloud
34%
Anyone who has been or will this year be on a ballot as a candidate for US Congress (House or Senate)
33%
Any Current State Representative
Will require some sort of proof/confirmation that it is the real user if their account is not marked as Verified.
Creating a limit order counts as making a bet.
The employee questions are for current employees only. Any employee can provide me proof privately for these questions. Please do not dox other users' employment.
If they placed a bet on Manifold during 2024 but before this market's creation, will still resolve YES when proven.
Ends at midnight EST on 31 December 2024.
Moderators are welcome to resolve any of these if I'm offline. No need to ping me.
Feel free to suggest more answers in the comments and I might add them!
Get แน1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought แน388 Answer #bd39267f6923 YES
@june I work for Microsoft, so that resolves YES. Message me if you need my email address for verification.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold enable real-money betting on Congressional races?
94% chance
Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?
14% chance
Will I be able to schedule bets on Manifold before 2025?
14% chance
Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (แน3,000 subsidy!)
53% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance
Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
6% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
51% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
45% chance
[Celebrity Wish List] Who will sign up for Manifold in 2024?
Who will be Manifold's 2024 Person of The Year?