Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
50
3.6kṀ12k
resolved Feb 17
Resolved
YES
Any Google employee
Resolved
YES
Shayne Coplan
Resolved
YES
Emmett Shear
Resolved
YES
Any employee (CEO not included) of Kalshi
Resolved
YES
Anyone with 25,000 or more followers on LinkedIn
Resolved
YES
Any Microsoft employee
Resolved
YES
Any Anthropic employee
Resolved
YES
Any Samsung employee
Resolved
NO
Lex Fridman
Resolved
NO
Nate Silver
Resolved
NO
Grimes
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Destiny
Resolved
NO
Beff Jezos
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Spencer Greenberg
Resolved
NO
Ilya Sutskever
Resolved
NO
Julia Galef
Resolved
NO
Any Current US Senator
Resolved
NO
Any Current US Representative

Will require some sort of proof/confirmation that it is the real user if their account is not marked as Verified.

Creating a limit order counts as making a bet.

The employee questions are for current employees only. Any employee can provide me proof privately for these questions. Please do not dox other users' employment.

If they placed a bet on Manifold during 2024 but before this market's creation, will still resolve YES when proven.

Ends at midnight EST on 31 December 2024.

Moderators are welcome to resolve any of these if I'm offline. No need to ping me.

Feel free to suggest more answers in the comments and I might add them!

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