Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
Mini
45
Ṁ9.2k
2025
97%
Any Amazon employee
92%
Any OpenAI employee
91%
Any Meta employee
79%
Anyone who placed a bet in 2022, but not in 2023
78%
Any Apple employee
68%
Any Dell employee
67%
Any Goldman Sachs employee
62%
Anyone who spent at least 24 hours straight under 10% in this market (including "any"/"anyone" answers)
60%
Any Netflix employee
58%
Anyone who made a Manifold account after finding out about the site from Bet on Love
53%
Any employee (CEO not included) of Polymarket
52%
Any Lenovo employee
49%
Anyone 90 years old or older
49%
Any Current State Representative
45%
Any Huawei employee
39%
Julia Galef
38%
Lex Fridman
36%
Any Tencent employee
36%
Nate Silver
35%
Any Sony employee

Will require some sort of proof/confirmation that it is the real user if their account is not marked as Verified.

Creating a limit order counts as making a bet.

The employee questions are for current employees only. Any employee can provide me proof privately for these questions. Please do not dox other users' employment.

If they placed a bet on Manifold during 2024 but before this market's creation, will still resolve YES when proven.

Ends at midnight EST on 31 December 2024.

Moderators are welcome to resolve any of these if I'm offline. No need to ping me.

Feel free to suggest more answers in the comments and I might add them!

Get Ṁ600 play money
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@june are you around? can you please resolve the options in the comments below? 🙏

bought Ṁ388 Answer #bd39267f6923 YES

@nikki woah nice catch

bought Ṁ189 Answer #10e2f8d11615 YES

bought Ṁ553 Answer #178ecf931c3d YES

bought Ṁ200 Answer #7ab8f699f867 YES

@june I work for Microsoft, so that resolves YES. Message me if you need my email address for verification.

Surprised to see so many answers stay high despite this market passing its peak popularity without anyone from those groups revealing themselves.

bought Ṁ5 Answer #2df12dc89cfc YES

Hmm

I'm a Google employee and I just made a bet on this question. Could you resolve it now?

I know users who can resolve a few of these but I don't feel comfortable sharing someone else's employer

@shankypanky Yeah, good opportunity for me to note: no doxxing other users!

@june how do you resolve those then?

@Tomoffer People can provide their own employers, just not the employers of others

They may be doing layoffs but Google employees aren't that rare yet

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