MANIFOLD
How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?
11
Ṁ1kṀ642
Oct 11
10%
seat gain
15%
0-10
14%
11-20 seats
15%
21-30 seats
18%
31-40 seats
29%
41+ seats

  • Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The baseline for this market will be the number of House seats held by the GOP on December 31, 2025.

  • Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The final count of GOP House seats will be based on the count of newly elected representatives from the 2026 general election.

Market context
U.S. Congress
Elections
2026 US Congressional Elections
US Senate
118th Congress
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From what baseline?

@EvanDaniel I presume the number of House seats on December 31, 2025.

@EnopoletusHarding And the final is the count of newly elected representatives? (As opposed to those still serving their terms as of December 31, 2026.) When / how is the new count determined?

Basically I'm trying to understand how this market will handle retirement, resignation, death, elections that are slow to determine a winner, and so on.

@EvanDaniel "And the final is the count of newly elected representatives?"

Yes.

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