
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections?
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections?
5
110Ṁ962028
73%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if after the 2028 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.
If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
Resolves N/A if these elections do not take place.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
75% chance
Republicans win 2028 election?
45% chance
Will a Republican be elected president in 2028?
43% chance
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections?
69% chance
Will democrats win the presidency, the House and the Senate in the 2028 election?
18% chance
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2024?/Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2028?
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
18% chance
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?
57% chance
Will Democrats lose control of the senate in 2024 and 2026, then regain it in 2028?
16% chance