
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana?
107
Ṁ7.5KṀ2K
2024
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ28 +187.9%
New probability
35%
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Jon Tester, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3869032-tester-running-for-reelection-to-montana-senate-seat/
Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D) announced Wednesday that he will seek reelection for a fourth term
If he weren’t running, this would almost definitely be NO.
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