Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana?
131
646
2.1k
Dec 1
37%
chance

This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Jon Tester, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.

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bought Ṁ84 of NO

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3869032-tester-running-for-reelection-to-montana-senate-seat/

Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D) announced Wednesday that he will seek reelection for a fourth term

If he weren’t running, this would almost definitely be NO.