Will a Democrat who is not Kyrsten Sinema win the Arizona Senate seat in 2024? (Kyrsten Sinema's seat)
Basic
54
18k
Dec 31
67%
chance

Resolves YES if a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema wins the Arizona Senate election in 2024. Resolves NO if Kyrsten Sinema wins (regardless of her party affiliation at that time), or if an Independent or Republican wins.

This market applies only to the seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema.

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Related markets:
Will Sinema win? https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-kyrsten-sinema-win-the-2024-se
Will a Republican win? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-republican-win-kyrsten-sinem
(This is almost an arbitrage opportunity, with the caveat that Sinema could potentially switch to the Republican Party.)