octothorpe avatar
octothorpe
closes Dec 31, 2024
Will a Democrat who is not Kyrsten Sinema win the Arizona Senate seat in 2024? (Kyrsten Sinema's seat)
42%
chance

Resolves YES if a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema wins the Arizona Senate election in 2024. Resolves NO if Kyrsten Sinema wins (regardless of her party affiliation at that time), or if an Independent or Republican wins.

This market applies only to the seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema.

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lisamarsh avatar
Lisa Marsh

Related markets:
Will Sinema win? https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-kyrsten-sinema-win-the-2024-se
Will a Republican win? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-republican-win-kyrsten-sinem
(This is almost an arbitrage opportunity, with the caveat that Sinema could potentially switch to the Republican Party.)