Will a Democrat who is not Kyrsten Sinema win the Arizona Senate seat in 2024? (Kyrsten Sinema's seat)
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Ṁ33kresolved Nov 11
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YES1D
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Resolves YES if a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema wins the Arizona Senate election in 2024. Resolves NO if Kyrsten Sinema wins (regardless of her party affiliation at that time), or if an Independent or Republican wins.
This market applies only to the seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Resolving YES based on The Hill: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4969256-ruben-gallego-defeats-kari-lake/
Related markets:
Will Sinema win? https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-kyrsten-sinema-win-the-2024-se
Will a Republican win? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-republican-win-kyrsten-sinem
(This is almost an arbitrage opportunity, with the caveat that Sinema could potentially switch to the Republican Party.)