Will a Democrat who is not Kyrsten Sinema win the Arizona Senate seat in 2024? (Kyrsten Sinema's seat)
Basic
54
Ṁ18kDec 31
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema wins the Arizona Senate election in 2024. Resolves NO if Kyrsten Sinema wins (regardless of her party affiliation at that time), or if an Independent or Republican wins.
This market applies only to the seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Related markets:
Will Sinema win? https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-kyrsten-sinema-win-the-2024-se
Will a Republican win? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-republican-win-kyrsten-sinem
(This is almost an arbitrage opportunity, with the caveat that Sinema could potentially switch to the Republican Party.)
Related questions
Related questions
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana?
31% chance
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Arizona?
31% chance
Will Democrats win either house of the Arizona state legislature in 2024?
50% chance
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Michigan?
63% chance
Which party will win the US Senate race in Arizona in 2024?
Will Ruben Gallego (D) win the 2024 Arizona Senate election?
59% chance
Will the candidate who wins Arizona win the 2024 POTUS election?
70% chance
Will a Republican win Arizona in the 2024 POTUS election?
70% chance
Who will be elected to the Arizona US Senate seat in 2024?
Will Kyrsten Sinema win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Arizona?
2% chance