At end of 2025, resolves based on the probability (rounded to 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%) that Trump ever (when above the age of 20) had any kind of sexual relations with a girl below the legal age of consent.
A broad but reasonable definition of “sexual relations” will be used. The age of consent is based on the laws of that jurisdiction at that time.
My plan is to resolve by averaging probabilities given on a poll of legitimate Manifold users. I will conduct this poll when 2025 is over, assuming that the correct resolution still needs to be determined. I may resolve YES early if clear evidence emerges.
Originally I said this market would resolve to my judgement (my current gut feeling is close to 50%), and I reserve the right to change the rules to ensure that the resolution is fair and reasonable.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution poll is available at: https://manifold.markets/Conflux/read-description-crowdsourced-forec. Poll closes at 10PM PST on Jan 5.
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Here's the resolution poll, which closes at 10PM PST on Jan 5: https://manifold.markets/Conflux/read-description-crowdsourced-forec
Dear traders: I have not forgotten about this market! While I have been busy with other matters, I have been thinking about how to structure a poll that will be as fair as possible while also producing the most accurate forecast.
I’m thinking about compiling a summary of the most relevant evidence / context / base rates to include in the poll. Let me know if there’s anything you think I should especially include, or if you have any other ideas for making a robust poll.
"when above the age of 20"
that's a pretty broad range, that's like any time after 1967, and he could have had one with a 17 year old when he was 21 ...
I don't think it's possible for one to fully resolve no this way
@Haiku if everyone votes as they’re holding we expect 75% I think. But that’s probably not how it will come out.
lol the desperate whitewashing continues, course there's no chance that an institution that missed the release deadline and engaged in unnecessary heavy redactions could possibly lie to the public. It's definitely the scores of women and girls who are lying about the adjudicated rapist who said he liked grabbing women by the pussy.
The allegations have long included underage girls. At least read the basic facts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct_allegations
@KyleY Only one of those is an allegation of sexual relations with an underage girl and it is almost certainly fabricated.
@AndrewHebb two of them are are about direct sexual relations with minors actually with multiple others about sexual harassment and perving on kids.
@AndrewHebb You appear very confident in your judgement that Trump is innocent. Can you explain why, in detail, how you came to this conclusion?
@Cody078a2 I'm not going to get into detail. I don't know whether he's innocent. But the base rate should be very low and so far, there has been basically zero evidence for it despite lots of people looking very hard for it. The strongest case that anyone seems to be able to make is that he seems like the kind of person who would do this based on other things he has done and I just don't find that remotely convincing. I think it's more likely than not that he's innocent based on the current evidence and with three days left in the year, it's unlikely that will change before 2026.
@Cody078a2 Trump defenders when presented with a literal video of him assaulting an underage girl: "but where's the evidence?!?! this could be fabricated!"
@Pazzaz obviously missing the point, which is there will never be enough evidence for people still demanding more evidence
@Lorelai just a bunch of fools trying to act intelligent. "hrm yes simply not enough evidence, I am very smart 🤔🤔🤔"
@AndrewHebb Given the scenario: A group of people who have previously been involved with an individual share a common, long-term consensus regarding that individual with you.
Would you be inclined to accept or otherwise alter any predefined perception of the individual? Why or why not?
@ZaneJoiner and not smart enough to see that a (Bezos-owned) newspaper quoting a likely lie, doesn't make it any more truthful
@AndrewHebb Base rate may be low, but there are witnesses to his raping underage girls, he was was part of the same sexual cloud as Epstein and has been to Little St James island multiple times. Mar A Lago was used as a hunting ground for Maxwell and Epstein. How do those factors affect the probability?
@GammaLaser actually I don’t think base rate is low. The base rate for any generic human is low, but if you factor in
Male
Old
Rich
Position of power
Associated with known pedophiles
Previous sexual crime
Those all will raise the “base rate”. I don’t think that rate is low anymore. There’s probably more factors I’m forgetting, but if you include the individual specific factors like Epstein island visitor I truly think this market should be 90%+
@Magnify yeah there's a reason I only have 5 in this market, it's obvious manifold's core user base skews maga so if it resolves by poll instead of evidence they'll likely vote his innocence (not even because they believe in it but because it is in their interests)
@Lorelai I’m Betting based on # of YES vs NO holders. On that it’s between 75 and 100% resolution. I think you’re correct in that manifold leans right - most prediction markets seem to. I think it’s not as egregious as polymarket who literally tried to tank zohran mamdani though
@NzJack0n Polymarket is terrible and artificially inflating support for Trump definitely a thing. Thiel / Founders Fund have red fingers in many tech pies
@NzJack0n I think there’s a difference between right and MAGA. lot of right wingers have been losing their mind with trump but either are surrounded by misinformed/cultist MAGA or believe the democrats are actual demons (often both).
@GammaLaser There are no such witnesses. There isn't even any credible evidence that Epstein trafficked girls to any of his many associates. The only person to make such an accusation didn't even accuse Trump.
There isn't even any credible evidence that Epstein trafficked girls to any of his many associates
Holy shit, just go spit on Virginia Giuffre’s grave at this point.
No reasonable person can watch this interview and come away thinking that:
@KyleY and in case his own words on camera didn’t make it obvious enough we just got further confirmation this month.
@KyleY at this point I'm starting to think these people actually just believe sexually coercing children isn't morally wrong.
@AndrewHebb No, the question is about a poll. The difference is important: depending on how much the surveyed group hates Trump, you could get a majority agreeing he raped hatchling lizardwomen. I wouldn't say such a question was about lizard people, just about one's views on Trump.