At end of 2025, resolves to my estimated probability (rounded to 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%) that Trump ever (when above the age of 20) had any kind of sexual relations with a girl below the legal age of consent. A broad but reasonable definition of “sexual relations” will be used.

I may resolve YES early if clear evidence emerges.

My current gut feeling, if I had to resolve now, is actually pretty close to 50%.

If the market gets popular, I might do a poll to resolve instead of using my gut.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.