This market will resolve as YES if it is confirmed by January 1st 2027 that Donald Trump and Bill Clinton had sex
For the purposes of this market, oral sex counts as sexual intercourse
1,000People are also trading
Hold on. @creator. Under what circumstance will this market resolve NO? I would like to confirm this isn't a YES or N/A market.
@realDonaldTrump I don't think the market creator has confirmed that anywhere, unless I'm mistaken. A clarification like that would almost certainly trigger an AI clarification, and I do not see anything of the sort in the market updates history.
@realDonaldTrump This linked comment from a different market is the type of situation I'm trying to confirm won't happen.
Oh no, this isn't right. For the sake of consistency, this market should be resolved on the basis of a poll, like this market.
@HillaryClinton I was thinking about doing the same thing, but you should have just copied the description by Conflux with only relevant changes regarding Bill Clintons age.
For those wondering why this market isn't at ≈0, Eric Neyman explored the dynamic of markets with an almost certain resolution that is a very long time away.
https://share.google/3CFVuCQzxY7Qb0Upv
Applied to this market:
Betting NO nets you very little mana, very far away. You'd rather bet on literally any other market.
When something interesting happens elsewhere, NO holders will sell their shares to participate in those markets. This pushes YES up.
@TiagoChamba the loan system on Manifold makes it worth it to push any market to 1/99. You'll get nearly every penny back in a few months. The reason this isn't there, is because it's opportunistic to try to get NO shares at the bedt possible value while people buy meme YES shares. If I had enough mana to push this to 1% and keep it there, I would. This will for sure be at <2% in a month.
@dgga that takes how many months though? Like 5 or so? Also you only get loans on 5% of your mana, so users max out quickly.
@dgga but why should you send a 5% market with resolution in 2027 to 1% when there are lower hanging fruits at 7-8% resolving in January 2026?
@Joshua yes, you are rigth. I guess when you have 25k mana to bet in a single trade the number of good opportunities with enough liquidity is reduced
@GazDownright I regretted it almost as the keystrokes left my fingers. But I left it so I get a memory imprint not to do it again. In regards to this market, this is such a high profile market, that market mechanics are highly complex, and can't really be simplified like that.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen No offense taken.
Thanks for the heads-up about the explanation not being complete. I don't know much about market dynamics, so I mostly posted in order to spark further conversation. I am not surprised to hear that the actual situation is more complex.
I'd really thank you if you could either explain why my model was too simplistic, or if you could point me to some reading material.
@TiagoChamba Well, mathematically your thinking would apply to a platonic ideal of a market, with no animal spirits even, driving the sentiment, but even at the most basic level, people want to be involved in a market that arouses our sentiments for and against. So you aren't going to get people coldly calculating the math. Where sentiments are unrealistic, what you will see is that the percentages are unrealistic at first but approach realistic levels, the closer to closing the market is, because then the winnings and losses will be realized.
@TiagoChamba but strictly speaking it is more of a thing with buyers on only one side prediminantly. This market is a genuine battlefield