Will Donald Trump be found guilty of sexual assault by 2030?
Standard
26
Ṁ10212029
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
@DanMan314 This is a civil case where the standard of proof is just 'does the jury think he's more likely than not to have done it'. I don't believe the term 'found guilty' is used. Based on this I think the answer is probably no but clarification is certainly warranted.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?
37% chance
Will Donald Trump spend any time in prison before 2030?
30% chance
What percentage of Trump’s charges in indictments unsealed in 2023 will result in a conviction by 2030?
59% chance
Will Donald Trump be found guilty on one or more of the 2020 Election Result federal charges?
31% chance
Will Donald Trump be alive to see 2030?
59% chance
If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026?
21% chance
Will Trump leave United States to avoid prosecution before 2030?
22% chance
Will Donald Trump be alive through the end of 2030?
56% chance
Will Donald Trump be, or claim he was, sexually assaulted in prison by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will Donald Trump be elected President in 2032?
2% chance