Will a court or congressional hearing be presented with sworn testimony stating that Donald Trump had sex with a minor, or with photo, video, or other recorded evidence to the same effect? This would include testimony on the stand or in a deposition, and could include both direct eyewitness or victim accounts or other unambiguous assertions without caveats by the witness.
The testimony or evidence need not be publicly available if a consensus of credible reporting is available that it happened. For example, a court documenting describing the photo, or a news report summarizing the testimony is likely sufficient.
There is no requirement that the evidence be compelling, or that there be a lack of evidence to the contrary; it must merely be presented under oath as fact without caveats or equivocation.
Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The term minor is defined by the applicable age of consent laws for the location and time of the alleged act. The market is about testimony regarding presumptively illegal acts.
Update 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on qualifying testimony or evidence presented after the market's creation date.
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It got memory holed but when he was running in 2016 there was a lawsuit alleging this already. Specifically that he raped a 13 year old with Epstein. This was a few years before Epstein’s final arrest and before Epstein became part of the broad public consciousness around 2019.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/assault-allegations-donald-trump-recapped
It was withdrawn due to Trump winning the election.
I would imagine the documents generated in that case may fit the requirements here.
@JasonQ Excellent background, thank you!
My intention is that this is a market about things happening after market creation. That could have been clearer, my apologies.
My understanding is that the allegations in that lawsuit were specific and unequivocal to the standards required by this question. After a little research, I'm unclear on whether the allegations are evidence or testimony presented to a court, or merely the claims in the lawsuit.
@EvanDaniel it seemed to me from the reporting that there was at least 1 witness testimony but that everything was withdrawn once the state of play was:
1) death threats coming in
2) Trump Elected to control over of the DOJ
3) Epstein still alive and off doing pedo shit after his slap on the wrist years earlier
4) the media focusing on more definitive information like Access Hollywood
I think the women involved decided to back off on this basis. We saw a similar case play out with Prince Andrew and Epstein vs Virginia Giuffre. In that case Andrew even gave a public interview in which he appeared cartoonishly guilty but faced little consequence and she died by suicide recently.
All this to say, I think the lack of exact clarity on the legal status from outside is the unfortunate state of play because they backed away from it.
@JasonQ They very clearly had two witnesses lined up (Katie Johnson / Jane Doe and Tiffany Doe). Did they give sworn testimony (including a deposition)? I had vaguely thought they had but now I'm unclear on that; I didn't search thoroughly but am now less certain than I was. If you've got links to depositions or articles about them I'd appreciate it!
@GG Quite frankly, I don’t give a darn if trump fucked a 17 year old, unless there were other aggravating factors. 16 is gross but still shouldn’t be a crime.
@GG Applicable age of consent laws. We already know he's a creep, this is about presumptively illegal acts.