Since this poll is about an emotionally charged issue which affects the resolution of a highly-traded market, I respectfully ask that you only answer this poll with the mindset of a neutral forecaster. According to my judgement, Manifold can be the Wikipedia of prediction — and that's why I'm trusting each of you (important asterisk in the Google Doc*), honorable citizens of Manifold, to think about this question analytically.

(content warning: descriptions of sexual abuse)

Unfortunately my original description was over 9,000 characters long, and Manifold poll descriptions apparently have a maximum length limit of 5,000 characters. Therefore, I've included all the information about this poll in this Google Doc, which you should read:

ALL POLL INFORMATION: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FBH7T1MvhezbzfUbLSoiybuirAfxyuzgxNFV6TEbZAg/edit?tab=t.0