[read description] Crowdsourced forecasting poll (related to Trump and sexual misconduct)
29
resolved Jan 6
5%
60%
90%
0.01%
15%
70%
100%
0%
10%
20%
25%
30%
55%
80%
95%
99.99%
35%
40%
45%
50%
65%
75%
85%
Since this poll is about an emotionally charged issue which affects the resolution of a highly-traded market, I respectfully ask that you only answer this poll with the mindset of a neutral forecaster. According to my judgement, Manifold can be the Wikipedia of prediction — and that's why I'm trusting each of you (important asterisk in the Google Doc*), honorable citizens of Manifold, to think about this question analytically.
(content warning: descriptions of sexual abuse)
Unfortunately my original description was over 9,000 characters long, and Manifold poll descriptions apparently have a maximum length limit of 5,000 characters. Therefore, I've included all the information about this poll in this Google Doc, which you should read:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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