If there is the same resolution criteria as the 2026 market, then the title doesn't matter. Odds should be the same.

@MaybeNotDepends Using the "same" rules when you don't mean it is just laziness and bad market rules writing.

@MaybeNotDepends the market is perfectly clear, you are being intentionally obtuse in an ironically failed attempt at pedantry

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/will-the-us-have-largescale-rioting

Will the US have large-scale rioting?

dashboard created by Brett Meraw

Would summer 2020 have counted?

@connorwilliams97 WaPo claims 14k arrests: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/22/who-caused-violence-protests-its-not-antifa/ so yes