Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?
21
1.4k
2100
59%
chance

A violent revolution for this question is defined as a definable movement pitting the populus against the government. This would involve the participation of at least 1% of the populace. A civil war is defined as an armed malitia or state backed group representing at least 1 million citicens going to war with the US military. The specifics of these definitions may be changed within a few weeks of creating the market by participants request , but my goal is to to keep them in line as much as possible with their actual definitions.

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predicts NO

Semi-arb versus https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-us-have-a-revolution-befor

The linked market requires an actual regime change but this one only requires an attempt that gets categorized as civil war

Pat Scott🩴boughtṀ190YES

Curious what your reasoning is!

@Joshua historical trends. I've been convinced for many years that the US will undergo significant upheaval in or near our lifetimes. that could be a bloodless transition, a societal collapse, civil war, or any number of other things, but most of these will inevitably involve conflict.