Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?

For the purposes of this question, "large-scale rioting" is defined as an event or group of directly related events of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met:

1. At least 25 people in total die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

2. At least 5,000 people in total are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 25. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.

Arrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 5,000.

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