Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032? | Manifold

Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?

12

Ṁ100Ṁ256

2032

60%

chance

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Resolution will be based on whether there is media consensus that any actions undertaken by politically motivated guerrilla groups represent an insurgency. I will not bet on this market. I'm open to suggestions that refine the resolution criteria before 2026.

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