Market Description

This market resolves based on whether the US conducts military operations in the listed countries between now and January 20th, 2029. The question was created following the January 3, 2026 US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. For Venezuela specifically, only additional military operations beyond the January 2026 operation count toward resolution.

This market focuses on significant new military interventions rather than routine expansions of existing commitments. The intent is to capture unprecedented, possibly unilateral action by the US, not proxy operations conducted through local forces.

Resolution Criteria

A "military operation" is defined as ANY of the following conducted by US forces:

Qualifying Operations

Direct kinetic military action - Any use of weapons, airstrikes, missile strikes, or bombings against targets within the country's territory
Ground operations - Deployment of US ground forces (including special operations) for combat, capture operations, or seizure of territory/assets within the country
Naval/aerial enforcement operations - Military boarding, seizure, or sinking of vessels/aircraft belonging to or operating under the flag of that country, when conducted within 12 nautical miles of that country's coast
Space-based military operations - Any use of space-based weapons or destructive action against satellites/space assets belonging to the target country
Cyber warfare operations - Publicly acknowledged cyber attacks by US military/intelligence services that cause physical damage to infrastructure within the country. Cyber attacks originating from the US but not officially claimed by the US government do NOT count unless there is compelling unofficial evidence of US responsibility (such as verified leaked communications from US officials acknowledging the operation).

Exclusions (these do NOT count as military operations)

Routine naval patrols or freedom of navigation operations
Joint military exercises with allied nations
Humanitarian aid deliveries
Evacuation of US citizens
Counter-drug operations against private vessels in international waters
Cyber operations that don't cause physical damage
Economic sanctions or diplomatic actions
Unclaimed cyber attacks without compelling unofficial evidence of US responsibility
Operations conducted by proxy forces (local militias, rebel groups, etc.) even if armed, funded, or directed by the US

Multi-Country Operations

If a single US military operation affects multiple listed countries, each affected country resolves YES.

The "Other" Entry

The "Other" entry will resolve to YES if a country not otherwise on the list meets the above criteria before it is added. At the time of this writing, Libya is not on the list of nations; if there is a US military operation targeting it before it is added to the list, Other will resolve YES. If Libya is added to the list before it is targeted (for the purposes of this resolution, we'll say at least five days before) then Libya would resolve YES and Other would stay unresolved.

Evidence Standard

Operations must be confirmed by official US government sources (DoD, White House, etc.) or credible major news reporting from at least two independent sources. For unclaimed cyber operations, evidence must include verified leaked communications or documents from US officials acknowledging responsibility (the standard reached by Signalgate pointing to US involvement would satisfy the question, and cause resolution of the target nation to "YES").

Market resolves YES for any country where qualifying military operations occur, and NO for countries where they do not occur by the deadline.

Additional Clarification Notes

Geographic Coverage

Denmark includes Greenland and other Danish territories
Canada includes all Canadian territories
Mexico includes all Mexican territories

Countries with Existing US Military Presence

This market excludes countries where the US maintains permanent military bases with over 500 personnel or formal Status of Forces Agreements as of January 2026. This specifically excludes: Iraq, Kuwait, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and similar established bases. Countries with limited advisory missions, temporary deployments, or small counterterrorism presences (under 500 personnel without formal basing agreements) are NOT excluded.

Russia and Cyber Operations

Note that while kinetic military action against Russia would be extremely unlikely due to nuclear escalation risks, cyber operations between the US and Russia likely occur regularly but are rarely acknowledged. The resolution criteria requiring either official acknowledgment or compelling leaked evidence means Russia could potentially resolve YES through cyber operations if such evidence emerges.