Resolves YES if the US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) publishes any new rule, interim final rule, advisory opinion, or other formal regulatory action affecting export controls on AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs/NPUs/etc.) on or before 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC.
Source of truth: Federal Register publications by BIS at federalregister.gov/agencies/industry-and-security-bureau and BIS press releases at bis.doc.gov.
The action must specifically affect AI accelerators or be reasonably interpreted as doing so (e.g., compute thresholds, country-of-destination restrictions, end-use restrictions on AI training, etc.). Pure entity-list additions of individual companies do NOT count unless the addition is part of a broader AI-accelerator-targeted rule.
Resolution date: 2026-09-30.
About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.
Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.
Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.
Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.
1,000Market was 16% when I bought. I have it ~75%. BIS already published a final rule on July 14 giving the UAE license-free access to AI chips, a change by destination country, which this market lists as counting. Your kind sold without reading. https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2026-14132
The cycle continues.