Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.

Terms:

• Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.

• Must target models or weights. Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.

• Must name a company other than Anthropic. Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.

• Foreign companies count (a control targeting a Chinese lab's weights qualifies), as do open-weight release restrictions.

• Does NOT count: voluntary agreements, the June 2, 2026 EO's voluntary collaboration mechanism, congressional bills (including the AI Kill Switch Act) unless signed and implemented via a qualifying BIS action, or state-level action.

• Publicity clause: IILs are not published, so this resolves on confirmation by the recipient company, BIS, a White House official, or reporting from two major outlets. If a control is later revealed to have been issued in 2026 but is only disclosed in 2027, this market has already resolved NO — traders are pricing public knowledge by Dec 31, not the underlying fact.