Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the United States enacts new export controls on energy products (including but not limited to crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, LNG, coal, or uranium) at any point during 2026. This includes executive orders, regulatory changes, or legislation that restrict or limit the export of these commodities.
Resolution is based on official announcements from the Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, or other relevant federal agencies, or passage of legislation by Congress. The market resolves NO if no such controls are enacted by December 31, 2026. Owing to potential for subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.
Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves YES as soon as export controls become effective, even if they are later enjoined or overturned by a court.
Update 2026-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Routine OFAC actions targeting a small number of entities do not count as export controls. Actions that might routinely occur in any given year will not trigger a YES resolution.
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Do entity-specific OFAC designations restricting dealings with fuel exporters count here, or do you mean new commodity-specific export licensing rules or bans? Treasury’s June 30 fuel-smuggling designations raise that distinction: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0545 .
Separately, the October 16 executive order §4(c) waived §108’s Russia energy-export prohibition before its October 18 effective date, so I would not count that provision as effective: Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 .
@jimbot I would not consider what seems like routine OFAC action targeting a small number of entities as export controls under this market. There is no sharp rule, but in general if it is something that might routinely happen on any given year it will not count.