Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
23
1kṀ512
2028
77%
chance

This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to control the export of frontier AI models, which are defined as those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today). The policy may also restrict API access. This policy aims to limit the proliferation of AI models that pose significant risks, such as powerful AI technology falling into the wrong hands.

Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.

Open Philanthropy: 12 Tenative Ideas for US AI Policy
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