Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?
Basic
47
4.4k
2027
61%
chance

Some possible triggers for NO:

  • He resigns or otherwise loses the presidency before the war ends

  • He dies before the war ends

  • He is ousted from the presidency as a condition of the war ending (even if he is given a small transition period of less than a year)

  • Russia ceases to exist as a nation

  • He changes position or title to something other than "President"

Doesn't trigger a resolution:

  • The war extends beyond Ukraine and is no longer considered the Ukraine-Russia war

  • Ukraine ceases to exist as a nation, is annexed, or is renamed

  • Russia is renamed

Otherwise, YES when the war ends. As per questions in the comments: for practical reasons, a formal armistice that is adhered to would qualify as the end of the war.

The close date on this market may be extended as needed.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Phrasing – Russia's invasion, not "war in Ukraine".

@Lorelai both are true! in this case, the invasion might end (e.g. by annexation) but the war could extend beyond there, thus the phrasing

@Stralor annexation is still invasion because the territory is still Ukrainian – that's why Ukrainians refer to "temporarily occupied territories". I'm not saying you're not correct – the war is geographically located in Ukraine, but phrasing it this way ensures Russia correctly receives the blame for it 🙂

How does this resolve if his title by that point changes to King or Supreme Leader?

Nvm you passed the interview for senior QA.

predicts NO

@JosephS 😂

@Stralor How do you define "war ends"? Does an armistice suffice, or does it have to be a permanent peace settlement observed by both sides?

predicts NO

@PS an armistice that is held to would suffice imo. I'd probably resolve when both armistice and actual cessation of conflict occur, with the caveat of reopening if it doesn't hold. thanks for the question!

The opposite is obviously true:
while Putin is president == war does not stop
The end of the war does not require him to stop being prez, but actually, it mostly all cases it kinda does.

Is there possibility for N/A in this market? Is it "does not trigger resolution"? To me N/A is one of resolution results.

predicts NO

@KongoLandwalker N/A is always a possibility if not stated imo. I can't think of any natural reasons that would resolve it in this case, though, only unforeseen problems

What if he repeats the "castling" with Medvedev again? He "resignes" but comes back before the end of war

@KongoLandwalker This will likely resolve NO when/if he resigns, but if he returns as president in time I'll ask for a re-resolve.

More related questions