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What will be true of Safe Superintelligence Inc.? [Add Answers]
125
แน€2.1kแน€25k
Jan 1
89%
At the start of 2026 the majority of their compute will be Nvidia GPUs
44%
At least 5 most recently OpenAI employees will join SSI inc by Jan 1st 2025
37%
They receive Israeli gov investment
24%
Will be purchased by or merge with another company by the end of 2026
8%
The Tel Aviv office (or any office in Israel) will no longer be important by EOY 2025
8%
It will invent super intelligence (judged by me)
7%
It will solve alignment
5%
It will solve alignment and invent superintelligence
5%
I'll work there
Resolved
YES
It will be for profit
Resolved
YES
It will reach a billion dollar valuation by 2025

Market context
Technology
AI
Science
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Wasn't sure if this should be extended or not given the answers, not all of them specify end dates.

bought แน€70 NO

@CaelumForder Resolves NO.

https://x.com/DimitrisPapail/status/1898731096944128486

@CaelumForder is there a word missing? Perhaps laid-off?

@MartinVlach I think what's meant is that the person joining's last employment has been with OpenAI

@MartinVlach yeah what @Big0h said, maybe they left, maybe they were fired, sabbatical etc. Just most recently it was OpenAI they were employed at

bought แน€50 NO

@MartinVlach Probably should say "recent OpenAI employees"

bought แน€150 YES

@CelebratedWhale

https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-co-founder-sutskevers-new-safety-focused-ai-startup-ssi-raises-1-billion-2024-09-04/

Theyโ€™ve raised $1B at reported $5B valuation. Article also reports company is for-profit.

@nikstar holy shit, Ilya got VC rizz

Why's the chance of this exactly the same as them solving alignment?

Because both are actually 0%.

@CelebratedWhale what's the timeframe for this option?

Indefinite, I will extend the market timeframe

can it ever resolve no?

Yes, if the company is no longer pursing SI, or another company invents SI first. By create I meant invent so I'll clarify in case that was unclear to anyone. If any of the 3 ppl who voted yes understood it differently, pm me

ah thanks for clarification

bought แน€20 NO

WE'RE SO BACK

@CelebratedWhale could you change by with before or by end of? "by" is ambiguous in english

People are also trading

When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
93% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
29% chance
What organization will first create superintelligence?
Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)
42% chance
When artificial general intelligence (AGI) exists, what will be true?
Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?
21% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
26% chance
If safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year?
61% chance
Will AI be considered safe in 2030? (resolves to poll)
72% chance
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