What organization will first create superintelligence?
25
1.1kṀ8542100
16%
OpenAI
9%
Anthropic
24%
DeepMind
9%
xAi
3%
Meta AI
16%
United States government
23%
Subsidiaries will resolve to the "main" organization. If there's a collaboration I'll resolve to a mix in proportion to my estimate of their contribution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If the first superintelligence is a human upload, who will it be?
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
40% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Which organization will most likely build the AI that destroys humanity? (See special resolution method)
Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
38% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?
How should AI Superintelligence be defined, in terms of IQ?
Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?
Will Super Intelligence happen in China first?
10% chance