What organization will first create superintelligence?
23
1kṀ757
2100
18%
OpenAI
11%
Anthropic
29%
DeepMind
13%
xAi
4%
Meta AI
25%
Other

Subsidiaries will resolve to the "main" organization.

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As noted in other similar markets, specifying resolution criteria would be important.

@Zozo001CoN It will be very obvious when superintelligence exists.

@IsaacKing then it should be no problem to define what do you mean by this.
Anyways, the principal issue for this market is not merely whether it exists, but how to judge who achieved it.

Feel free to suggest other orgs for me to add BTW. (I didn't make it free response so as to avoid overlapping answers.)

@IsaacKing Can you add Meta?

@AmitAmin Done

People are also trading

What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will Super Intelligence happen in China first?
10% chance
Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?
If the first superintelligence is a human upload, who will it be?
Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?
Which organization will most likely build the AI that destroys humanity? (See special resolution method)
Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
38% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
How should AI Superintelligence be defined, in terms of IQ?
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