What if she says "I don't 'identify' as a woman, I am a woman"?

This is extremely unlikely to happen in 2024. In 2028, regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins, the incumbent cannot serve another term and both parties will have open primaries. Since incumbents are modest favorites to win re-election, and since one party’s candidate is already determined by the previous election, it is not as likely that a female candidate will win the presidency for the first time in 2032. So basically, the three viable paths seem to be:

(i) A female candidate is nominated by any party and goes on to win in 2028, or

(ii) Biden steps aside or dies in office, making Kamala Harris president, or

(iii) A female candidate is nominated by the opposition party and goes on to defeat the incumbent in 2032.

All three seem possible but not >40% together to me.

@AmadeoBordiga 2028 seems likely enough to account for most of 40%? If we give it roughly 50/50, I think democrats are over 60% to have a female nominee and I'd give republicans about 20% (mostly but not solely due to Haley).

@ShakedKoplewitz In my view, the past 10-20 years do not suggest that Democrats are >60% to have a female nominee, especially since Harris is not well-liked.

@AmadeoBordiga if we look at the top few candidates on the 2028 market, it's about 20% female candidates and 30% male candidates (the rest of the market being split between many small candidates and "other"). Expanding it to the full Dem pool gives us about 40% for Dem female candidate. If you assume 40% is about right for Dems in 2028 and 20% for Rs, that gives us about 30% total probability for 2028, which together with the various other options plausibly gives about 40% overall.

Well, good thing I wrote this so I have definitive evidence that I too prematurely dismissed the Biden steps down option.

@CarsonGale If Joe Biden died tomorrow and Kamala Harris became the acting US president, would that count?

@LukeHanks yes

@LukeHanks If Biden died tomorrow, Harris would become the actual president, not just the acting president. She has actually already been the acting president when Biden was under anesthesia.

Seems <10% in 2024 (no obvious republican candidates, democrats would have to nominate either Harris (plausible, but still<10% and very unlikely to win the ge if she did) or a relatively unknown candidate (e.g. whitmer), which is unlikely). Either way they'd have to be doing badly enough that Biden doesn't run, which seems like a long shot.

For 2028/2032 - it's possible, but not a lot of obvious candidates on either slate (there's a few, and someone could always come out of left field, but a lot of the obvious candidates mentioned below are pretty unelectable).

Three elections is a lot of opportunities, but hard to see more than 15% per election (especially since these are likely to have at least one repeat president, including plausibly Biden). So I don't see this going for over 40%.

@ShakedKoplewitz I think the chance is very low for 2024, since we're very likely to see Biden run on the D side and either Trump or DeSantis on the R side. But it gets much higher for the next two elections. I'm not sure what to judge the probability as, but both parties have plausible female contenders for president.

Interesting. Don't know why these markets went uncorrected for so long.

@IsaacKing That is interesting, considering there were 15+ traders on each. Good illustration of anchoring I guess.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale

It's somewhat depressing to think that, ~13 years from now in 2035, it's somewhat likely that the U.S. STILL will not have had its first female president. https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-there-be-a-us-president-who-id

@ManifoldDream

https://news.stanford.edu/2022/02/02/groupthink-gone-wrong-assumptions-electability-undermine-women-political-candidates/

What we really should imagine is that any presidential candidate, white, black, male, female, can be just as crappy as any other prior president. So let’s vote for whomever is the least worst among electable candidates.

Groupthink gone wrong: How assumptions about electability undermine women political candidates | Stanford News

When voters perceive women political candidates to be less electable than men they are likely to vote for a man instead. But there are ways to overcome these often-exaggerated beliefs, according to new Stanford research.

there's a lot of ways this could go... Nikki Haley, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Elise Stefanik, Liz Cheney, etc

@a AOC as well.

Knowing it hasn't happened yet though in America's history does make me think it might not be that likely.