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Preregistering college application predictions
Now that the probabilities on markets about my Early Action applications have stabilized a bit, let's see how they compare to what I personally think will happen.
Lewis & Clark College
(https://manifold.markets/embed/a/will-i-be-accepted-to-lewis-clark-c)I give myself a 95% chance of admission; the market seems undervalued here. The base acceptance rate is 80%, and my academic performance is significantly above their average. (95% of applicants from my high school over the past 4 years who applied to L&C and reported their outcome were accepted, and all of the rejected 5% had GPAs below 3.2. Of course, it's possible that students who got rejected might be less likely to report that to the dataset.)
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
(https://manifold.markets/embed/a/will-i-be-accepted-to-worcester-pol)I think this market is a lot more accurate than the Lewis & Clark one. Since WPI doesn't consider test scores, my academic profile seems pretty close to the average for WPI, and their overall acceptance rate is about 60%. However, the data from my high school tells a different story: a whopping 83% of applicants were accepted, including every applicant with a GPA above 4.0. I know my high school has some similarities with WPI in educational philosophy, which might help. Overall, I'm inclined to trust base rates a bit more and predict that I have a 70% chance of acceptance to WPI.
Reed College
(https://manifold.markets/embed/a/will-i-be-accepted-to-reed-college)Reed is another school where my high school's data conflict with their overall acceptance rate of 31%; a whopping 78% of applicants (and 81% of >4 GPA applicants) from my school were accepted. I personally am skeptical of such a high acceptance rate and put my chances at 55%.
Case Western Reserve University
(https://manifold.markets/embed/a/will-i-be-accepted-to-case-western)I predict I have a 50% chance of acceptance to Case Western Reserve. Their overall acceptance rate is only 30%, but they consider standardized tests, and my SAT score is well above average. From my high school, 36% of applicants over the last 4 years were accepted (46% of those with GPAs above 4.0).
I'm not sure why this market is so high; Case is a relatively selective school, and my application, while strong, is not extraordinary (plenty of people with similar applications are rejected from Case).
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
(https://manifold.markets/embed/a/will-i-be-accepted-to-mit)I think this market is way too high. MIT is extremely selective (below 10% acceptance rate) and I'm not above average for them. The data from my high school is kind of wonky (I may have been interpreting previous datasets incorrectly?), but it seems like about 7% get in (10% of those with GPAs above 4.0), which matches what MIT reports. Since it's a well-known school, MIT might get more underqualified applicants than usual, and I think I have better-than-normal letters of recommendation, which MIT cares about. However, I absolutely wouldn't place my chances any higher than 30%, and I'd say they're probably closer to 15%.
All in all, I'm curious to see if Manifold can beat my own predictions!2
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