Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2036

Carson's Important Markets US Politics Presidential Politics

Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?

44%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Remaining election cycles in 2024, 2028, and 2032.

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Shaked Koplewitz

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Seems <10% in 2024 (no obvious republican candidates, democrats would have to nominate either Harris (plausible, but still<10% and very unlikely to win the ge if she did) or a relatively unknown candidate (e.g. whitmer), which is unlikely). Either way they'd have to be doing badly enough that Biden doesn't run, which seems like a long shot.

For 2028/2032 - it's possible, but not a lot of obvious candidates on either slate (there's a few, and someone could always come out of left field, but a lot of the obvious candidates mentioned below are pretty unelectable).

Three elections is a lot of opportunities, but hard to see more than 15% per election (especially since these are likely to have at least one repeat president, including plausibly Biden). So I don't see this going for over 40%.

bought Ṁ171 of NO

Interesting. Don't know why these markets went uncorrected for so long.

is predicting YES at 50%

@IsaacKing That is interesting, considering there were 15+ traders on each. Good illustration of anchoring I guess.

Manifold DreamBot

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale

It's somewhat depressing to think that, ~13 years from now in 2035, it's somewhat likely that the U.S. STILL will not have had its first female president. https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-there-be-a-us-president-who-id

bought Ṁ50 of YES

there's a lot of ways this could go... Nikki Haley, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Elise Stefanik, Liz Cheney, etc

@a AOC as well.

Knowing it hasn't happened yet though in America's history does make me think it might not be that likely.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 43% to 44%

sold Ṁ4 YES from 44% to 43%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 44%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 44% to 43%

Dennis Christensen

bought Ṁ10 NO at 44%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 44% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ44 YES from 46% to 43%

sold Ṁ42 YES from 48% to 46%

sold Ṁ26 NO at 48%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 48%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 47% to 48%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 47%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 48%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 48%

filled limit order Ṁ68/Ṁ200 NO at 48%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 48%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 49%

filled limit order Ṁ99/Ṁ300 NO at 49% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 54% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 50% to 55%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 49%

Mikala Sterling

bought Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 49%

Shaked Koplewitz

bought Ṁ35 NO from 52% to 50%

Shaked Koplewitz

bought Ṁ10 NO at 52%

bought Ṁ40 YES from 50% to 52%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 49% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 49%

bought Ṁ60 YES at 50%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 48% to 50%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ32 YES at 48% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 YES at 46% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ87 NO from 50% to 45%

filled limit order Ṁ300/Ṁ300 NO at 50%

created limit order for Ṁ45 NO at 70%

filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 60%

filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ25 YES at 50%

bought Ṁ60 YES from 59% to 62%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 58%

Braulio Valdivielso Martínez

bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 59%

Jakub Kolčář

bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 60%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

sold Ṁ9 YES from 61% to 60%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 61%

bought Ṁ35 YES from 59% to 61%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 59%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

bought Ṁ1 YES at 58%