Remaining election cycles in 2024, 2028, and 2032.
Seems <10% in 2024 (no obvious republican candidates, democrats would have to nominate either Harris (plausible, but still<10% and very unlikely to win the ge if she did) or a relatively unknown candidate (e.g. whitmer), which is unlikely). Either way they'd have to be doing badly enough that Biden doesn't run, which seems like a long shot.
For 2028/2032 - it's possible, but not a lot of obvious candidates on either slate (there's a few, and someone could always come out of left field, but a lot of the obvious candidates mentioned below are pretty unelectable).
Three elections is a lot of opportunities, but hard to see more than 15% per election (especially since these are likely to have at least one repeat president, including plausibly Biden). So I don't see this going for over 40%.

@IsaacKing That is interesting, considering there were 15+ traders on each. Good illustration of anchoring I guess.

there's a lot of ways this could go... Nikki Haley, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Elise Stefanik, Liz Cheney, etc

@a AOC as well.
Knowing it hasn't happened yet though in America's history does make me think it might not be that likely.














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