Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?
44%
chance

Remaining election cycles in 2024, 2028, and 2032.

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ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Seems <10% in 2024 (no obvious republican candidates, democrats would have to nominate either Harris (plausible, but still<10% and very unlikely to win the ge if she did) or a relatively unknown candidate (e.g. whitmer), which is unlikely). Either way they'd have to be doing badly enough that Biden doesn't run, which seems like a long shot.

For 2028/2032 - it's possible, but not a lot of obvious candidates on either slate (there's a few, and someone could always come out of left field, but a lot of the obvious candidates mentioned below are pretty unelectable).

Three elections is a lot of opportunities, but hard to see more than 15% per election (especially since these are likely to have at least one repeat president, including plausibly Biden). So I don't see this going for over 40%.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ171 of NO

Interesting. Don't know why these markets went uncorrected for so long.

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Gale
is predicting YES at 50%

@IsaacKing That is interesting, considering there were 15+ traders on each. Good illustration of anchoring I guess.

ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale

It's somewhat depressing to think that, ~13 years from now in 2035, it's somewhat likely that the U.S. STILL will not have had its first female president. https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-there-be-a-us-president-who-id

a avatar
arae
bought Ṁ50 of YES

there's a lot of ways this could go... Nikki Haley, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Elise Stefanik, Liz Cheney, etc

CarsonGale avatar

@a AOC as well.

Knowing it hasn't happened yet though in America's history does make me think it might not be that likely.