Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?
18
1kṀ1589
Dec 31
18%
chance

e.g. https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1664968556688076801?s=20

This market will resolve YES if an institution deemed by me to be roughly fitting this description (eg has significant international cooperation) is set up in London by January 1, 2026. If an institute like this is set up in another country instead it will resolve NO.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
66% chance
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
42% chance
[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
66% chance
Will we have a sufficient level of international coordination to ensure that AI is no longer threat before 2030?
22% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
14% chance
Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
47% chance
Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
19% chance
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
78% chance
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
88% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy